Good morning all,
Managed to find three winners for the Life yesterday, including the Punt tip, so a very pleasing day overall. Today, I have done the Hamilton card for them, so again, if you're looking for a full rundown of all the runners on the card, head on over to their website. If I can tip another three winners on what looks a tricky card I'd be delighted!
So I'm putting a couple of Colossuses up at Hamilton a bit later this morning – my reasonings, plus a 66-1 selection for today, are on the main piece.
Makyon looks like something of a banker after a solid debut effort at York, but he does face different ground conditions here and with that, I'd want a back-up in case he blows out. Troubador would look the obvious one, but he too has different ground to cope with, and a penalty. Instead, I'm looking at Stormy Bay, who looks very much in need of a sixth furlong on his staying-on fifth here last time (on ground with some cut, too) and newcomer Teenar. Will make a decision when I put it up.
I Could Do Better is proven on soft, but has the penalties to carry. Even so, he might be difficult to get out of the frame, and I don't think this is a race for heroics. We've also got easy Southwell winner Alexander James in here, and he's on our watching list. The drop back to 6f is an interesting call from them and in this soft ground, it might be ideal. We'll put the pair in, then we're covered in case the jolly blows out, and if not, chances are we'll have a double-up.
This looks a bit more open and top of my list is Pammi, who will appreciate the return to softer ground and looks very well treated now. She's a course winner too, and should stay, so has plenty in her favour.
Auxilliary stays well and handles soft, but has a 267-day absence to overcome, which might make him vulnerable. Give Battle is obviously interesting for Charles Byrnes as well, and similarly Battle Of Issus, who has shown little so far but the booking of De Sousa catches the eye. Tricky little race to get past, this.
This looks between three on form, and Donuian Triumphant simply has to go in, with this ground very much in his favour. He'll come on plenty for that Leicester run on ground simply too fast for him. Sands Of Mali is the class act but will he be fully wound up today? Not sure. Brando is capable too but I expected him to do better at York last time. May just put Donjian Triumphant in and cross fingers, we will see.
I thought Ocala had a decent chance here, but I'm a little surprised to see her favourite. I get the fact she's unexposed and improving, but she's unproven in ground this deep and there's no saying she'll appreciate it. I'm going to oppose her with Set In Stone, who is a C&D winner (on soft too) and simply looks too well handicapped to ignore, and Sputnik Planum, a bit below par at Chester but probably capable of better than that, and he has his ground today.
4.30 If we're still in by the last it'll get no easier, with a 9-2 the field finale. The one that jumps out at me a bit is Kenny The Captain, who came back to form last time, looks very well treated on old form, and won't mind some cut. He should go well, and I'll throw in top weight Imperial State, sure to be staying on late, and The Right Choice, who didn't do badly considering he raced alone at Ascot last time and ought to be capable of better here.
I'll put the Colossuses up at 10am, and I will do a few, so plenty of you can throw a couple of quid in.
Now, onto today's selection, which runs in the last at Hamilton at 5.00. I'm never afraid to try one at a price and that's the case today, as I think there's enough juice in Camanche Grey‘s 80-1 price (and four places with a few books) to give him a (very) small e/w go. Let's get the negatives out of the way first – he's 5lb out of the handicap, the trainer's horses are running poorly (although, tbf, most have no chance anyway) and Camargue Grey himself is no win machine. Okay, now the positives – Hamilton form reads 13226, he handles soft ground, has had a wind operation since last being seen, and last time out, from a stone out of the handicap at Newcastle, actually ran rather well (sent off 200-1!), finishing fourth. If you take that run as gospel, and the speed rating he achieved says you can, then a repeat of it would put him bang in the mix here. If you ran this race eighty times, would he win it once? I'm sure he would. With that, I'm giving him a try here. More likely to blow out, of course, so keep those stakes small, but equally, he could give us a run for our money!
Good luck with all your bets today,