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More Henderson Hurdlers

So yesterday we discovered that the profit in the last two years from Nicky Henderson's hurdlers all came from just two jockeys.

Today I want to look at race courses to see if the profit is coming from favoured tracks and first off I'm going to look only at the rides of Barry Geraghty.

The reason for this is that he takes the majority of the rides at the Henderson yard and if we could find some profit from his rides we would have a larger sample.

The trouble, I imagine, when you are a stable jockey is that you ride everything that you are available for so that has to include a lot of horses that have little chance of winning.

So what we need is some other indicator of when a horse has a chance because I'm sure Barry is as good as McCoy, but McCoy is called in when an owner wants somebody special, so that is an indicator itself that the horse has a solid chance.

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I don't think that particular race tracks is the key we're looking for to unlock the profits from Barry Geraghty rides, so if you have a suggestion on what might be then drop it in the comments.

But for now we'll look at courses and see where that gets us.

The table below shows Barry Geraghty rides on Nicky Henderson trained hurdlers since January 2013 broken down by course and only showing those where there have been more than 10 runs.

Barry Geraghty by Course Table


Ok we can see that there are very impressive strike rates at the bottom four courses and strong profits at three of those so maybe that is a system itself?

Next I'm going to look at courses for all jockeys.


Henderson Hurdlers by Course Table


Now we see profit at Bangor, Doncaster, Huntingdon, Kempton, Sandown, Stratford and Uttoxeter (just).

Most of the profit comes from the same tracks with the additions having either small volume or small profit.

So I'm going to finish off today by telling you that since January 1st 2013 backing all Nicky Henderson hurdlers at Doncaster Kempton and Sandown would have produced a 30% strike rate from 111 bets and a huge 60% return on investment.

On Course Profits free Horse Racing magazine

As they say in the finance adverts past results are not a guarantee of future gains or some such disclaimer, but I will be monitoring the Henderson hurdlers at these courses going forward.

Today's Selection

12.40 Southwell Bitaphon – win bet – 9/2 Betfred

4 thoughts on “More Henderson Hurdlers”

  1. Iv been following Nicky Henderson for a few years now and most of his winners are 2-3 year olds although the last year the odds on his horse’s have shortened used to get 5/1+ but now seems 4/1 or lower have the bookies shortened the odds on purpose ?

  2. I use a micro system for Henderson and it’s based on debutants having first run under UK rules. It is based mainly on NH flat and hurdles. I know you use horseracebase so I’ve just cut and pasted my rules.

    General Race Data – affects every runner
    Race Category National Hunt
    Ascot Cheltenham
    Chepstow Doncaster
    Exeter Ffos Las
    Fontwell Kempton
    Newbury Sandown
    Stratford Towcester
    Uttoxeter Wincanton
    Race Distance – Btw 1m4½f & 2m6f
    Date (Month of Year)
    January February March
    October November December
    Horse Data – characteristics in this race
    Odds – Btw Evens & 16/1
    Age – Btw 3 & 6 years old
    H-Runs (Any) – Exactly 0
    Trainer Data
    Henderson, N J

    Bets Wins WinStrike SP_PL Places PlaceStrike Races RaceStrike ROI BF_Back BF_Lay
    175 66 37.71% 122.50 105 60.00% 168 39.29% 70.00% 152.33 -171.53

    You will see that it has performed steadily year after year since 2003.

    Henderson repeats the same training routine year after year and this has allowed me to have the above and two other micro systems (handicap hurdles and mares) on the man from severn burrows.



  3. With regards to B. Geraghty strike-rate try looking at horse ridden by him last time out and starting in the first three in the market as two areas to look at.

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