by Dave French

February 5, 2016

Today Josh Wright of Betting Insiders assesses the Heroes Handicap Hurdle at Sandown tomorrow and tips up a 5/1 shot.

In this month's Betting Insiders Josh shares a collection of micro systems based on trainer trends. http://bettinginsiders.com

Sandown: 3.00 Heroes Handicap Hurdle

16 renewals since 1997

228 runners, 52 placed horses

1 winner down as having had no previous UK form/run.

***

TRENDS

Previous Place

  • 14/15 ‘with UK form’ Top 5 LTO
  • 6th or worse (completed): 0/45, 2 places
  • Fell: 1/7, 3 places
  • PU: 0/14, 1 place

Horse Age

  • 16/16 Aged 5-9
  • 10+ : 0/19, 3 places

Days Since Run

  • 15/15 ran 8-90 days ago
  • 1-7 days: 0/9, 2 places
  • 91+ : 0/16, 4 places

Horse Weight

  • 14/16 carried 10-12 or less
  • 10-13+ : 2/76, 14 places…12.5% winners…33% runners…27% places

Horse Official Rating

  • Nothing significant

Season Runs

  • Nothing significant

Position In Market

  • 9/16 Top 2 in market…56% winners…14% runners…29% places

Odds

  • 16/16 20/1 or shorter SP
  • 22/1+ : 0/65, 8 places

***

OTHER STATS

Miscellaneous 1

Pos Wgts (ex Clm) –

  • Top Weight: 1/16, 5 places (winner had OR170)
  • 2nd /3rd (inc joints) : 0/34, 4 places

‘The ‘Running’ Characteristics’

H – Run (career)

  • 13/15 had 4-14 career runs
  • 13/101, 27 places…81% winners…44% runners…52% places

H- RUN (Hncp NH Race Type)

  • 10/16 had 0-3 handicap hurdle runs (inc the one with ‘no run’
  • 10/97, 27 places…62% winners…43% runners…52% places

H-Run (Last Win)

  • 13/15 had won at least once in previous 4 starts
  • 13/124, 34 places…81% winners..54% runners…65% places
  • 1/50, 9 places had not won in any of previous 6 runs

H-Run (Last Placing)

  • 15/15 had placed on at least one of last 3 starts
  • 0/36, 5 places had not

The ‘Winning’ Characteristics

H-Win (Hncp/Non)

  • 5+ handicap wins: 0/21, 4 places

Miscellaneous 2

Best In Three Runs

  • 12/15 had won at least once in last 3 runs
  • 12/116, 31 places…80% winners, 51% runners…60% places

Best In Five Runs

  • 13/15 Had won at least once in last 5 starts
  • 15/15 had come 1st or 2nd at least once in previous 5 starts
  • 0/26, 4 places had not

Class Move

  • Up 4 classes or more from last run (a move from C4 or 5 – a move from Listed to G3 is a move of 1 class for example – despite both being ‘c 1s’)
  • 0/19, 4 places

Distance Move

  • Up 5f or more from last run: 0/24, 5 places

Highest Class Win

  • Those yet to win above C4 or 5: 0/37, 7 places

Horses ‘Last Race’ Characteristics

(LR) Grp/Grd/Lst

  • Listed race LTO: 0/9, 0 places

(LR) No. of Runners

  • 5 or fewer runners LTO: 0/17, 2 places

(LR) Track (of interest)

  • Kempton: 4/30, 9 places
  • Cheltenham: 4/33, 10 places
  • Ascot: 3/23, 4 places
  • 1 win each: Sand/Ayr/Warw/Chep
  • Wincanton: 0/15, 1 place
  • Hayd: 0/15, 2 places

Trainers (of interest)

  • P Nicholls: 3/9, 5 places
  • P Hobbs: 2/6, 5 places
  • 1 win each, many: K Reveley/Miss Suzy Smith/F Doumen/R Phillips/M Ryan/N Henderson/NTD/Miss V Williams/M Jefferson
  • Jonjo O’Neill: 0/13, 1 place
  • Martin Pipe: 0/27, 1 place
  • D Pipe: 0/4, 1 place

***

The ‘Winning Profile’

  • Top 5 LTO or Fell
  • Placed on at least one of last 3 starts

Applying these two would remove  Foxclub/Join The Clan/Little Boy Boru and Invicta Lake.

There are not too many other overly strong pointers given the numbers but those with 4-14 career runs have done quite well. That would leave a shortlist of Ibis Du Rheu/Baywing/Donna’s Diamon/Saddlers Encore.

***

SELECTION

Ibis Du Rheu – 1 point win – 5/1 (Paddy Power Will Hill)

This young and exposed horse has plenty more to come and the way he has ran the last twice suggests this extra couple of furlongs, with this stiff finish, could be just what he wants. Unlike the last day he may also get a stronger pace to aim at here. 5/1 is fair enough and I suspect he may go off favourite. Other than the horse, the eye catching stat is Paul Nicholl’s record in the race – 3/9, 5 places – so he knows what is needed. He looks sure to run a big race. The one niggle is still with the yard and as I write he has had a couple of winners at Wincanton and a couple run weak races. Some are seeing their races out and some are not. 40% of his runners in the last 30 days are winning or placing though (more placed) and many trainers would bite your hand off for that consistency. Maybe he could just be about to turn the corner. Either way, given this horse’s profile, I am happy to take 5s to find out. Horses that ran at Kempton LTO also have done well, as have French breds from the number of runners.

Of the rest, well Yala Enki re-opposes the selection here. He won for us LTO, winning from the front as hoped. I liked him that day due to the drop in trip and easy lead. Well, he goes further here (didn’t look to suit at Haydock) on a stiffer track and could also have competition for the lead from the likes of Saddlers Encore and Invicta Lake.  He has also gone up 13lb (taking account of jockey claim the last day) and while that rise for a progressive horse would not necessarily put me off the actual weight difference does – he carried 9-8 that day, he has 11-0 here. That is a massive difference. Not for me. If he does it again then hats off to the horse and connections.

Saddlers Encore has to be feared due to the trainer’s record in the race also but on what they have done to date the selection’s form is better. But he is unexposed and could well come on for that last run, this race probably being the target. If he was a double figure price he may have been tempting but at only 2 points bigger than the selection I am happy to leave him.

The rest have plenty to prove. I looked at Anteros based on that last run but he was well stuffed in this race last year. This renewal looks a bit stronger and I would like to think there are better ones in here. I hope I don’t regret leaving him. Medinas has a big weight and a long absence to overcome. I generally don’t like backing those types in a race like this. But, his trainer could not be in better form and he is the classiest horse in the race on what they have done to date. I suspect this may be a prep for something.  Baywing is effectively 15lb higher than that last run in a C3. If he is rapidly improving he may be able to overcome that but he will need to step forward again. I would rather go with a horse form one of the ‘big guns’ in this.

Good Luck

Josh

p.s you can read my blog here… www.racingtoprofit.co.uk

Today's Selection

15:15 Chepstow Kings River – win bet 4/1 888 Sport

Disclaimer: All views and opinions expressed in this article are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the official policy or position of TGH Trading Ltd or it's employees.

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Dave French

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