We often get emails into Daily Punt asking about methods and techniques for finding horses to lay.
So today a basic method that I've borrowed from the Easy Lay Method website.
There are many reasons why horses lose their races and the most obvious is that usually there is always a horse that is capable of winning on his day.
So we need to analyse a race from the viewpoint, not of whether the horse can win, but whether others can beat it!
As a general rule only 30% of favourites win their races. It’s a fact that the most certain of certainties can lose and they very often do.
Couple this with the fact that in pure numerical terms in a ten runner race for example, there is only a 1 in ten chance of winning.
Now let us look at the numerous reasons why market leaders might not win the race.
1. The going is not ideal – some horses race best on ground that suits their running style.
For example a horse that lifts its hooves up high will usually do best on soft going and possibly the all weather tracks.
Horses that appear to glide over the ground will prefer good or firm going as their hooves are not going to sink into the surface.
Use the past race comments to identify horses that are not proven on today’s going.
2. The course is not ideal – most horses have a preference for a certain type of course.
The type of course they prefer is often highlighted by their results.
Some are nippy types and prefer a tight course such as Chester.
Others may be out and out gallopers and will prefer a course such as Aintree, while some prefer to run on all weather surfaces such as fibresand or polytrack.
Again look for fancied horses not proven at the course or similar types of courses.
3. The trip is not ideal – horses are like human athletes as some are muscle bound sprinters.
Some lithe and lean long distance runners and most are probably somewhere in between.
Although it is true for most horses that they become better at longer distances as they age.
This may explain why there are a much larger percentage of older horses in jumps races of 3 miles and further.
As well as looking at past form think about which of the contenders fit the profile for the type of horse that does well in today’s type of race.
There are a whole plethora of further reasons which might affect a horse’s performance on the day eg Doesn’t travel well, prefer different seasons, prefer small or large fields of runners, mares very often do well when in foal and you begin to see it is a wonder that horses perform as consistently as they do.
Your job is to find these weaknesses.
Let’s take a look at some example lay selections found by the ELM “Elite”.
Pontefract 2.10 Transcental – Lost at 100-30 SP Favourite
Positive: Her previous 3rd encouraged the market to consider this valuable experience in a field of unraced maidens
Negative: Never underestimate the opposition in maiden races as so little is known about the runners.
Pontefract 4.10 Adab – Lost as 2-1 Favourite
Positive: Fair 3rd last time out
Negative: Different type of course – the one galloping and the other tight
Bath 7.15 Danski – Lost at 5-1 favourite
Positive: Previous 4th was a fair run
Negative: Race was on all weather at Kempton not turf as at Bath
Southwell 4.25 Graylyn Ruby – Lost at 9-2 favourite
Positive: Tried this trip for the first time when 3rd at this venue last time
Negative: Same track and trip but stiffer competition
What we can see from these selections is that most are poor value.
They are favourites or short priced for the wrong reasons, namely their position last time out and this is what gives us the edge.
They are often backed into favouritism because of what they achieved last time out rather than on their true merits.
Unusually, market sentiment in these cases has given us an edge.
For more info or to get daily lay selections go to http://www.easylaymethod.com
Pontefract 8.20 Reset City – each way bet – 11/1 Bet Victor, Sky Bet