Today we have our third guest column from Malcolm Pett of Greyhorse Bot fame.
It’s strange how you see yourself…
I have always thought of myself as out going sort of person who likes a challenge and is not afraid to try something new.
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Although I haven’t done as much as some people, I have had my fair share of adventures including, windsurfing, flying lessons, Scuba diving and sailing. Those are among some of the things I have tried and learned.
But while talking with some friends who I have only known over the last few years they said I was more of a “nerdy” type of guy.
When I quizzed them about why that was their impression of me?
Their answer was simply I am always talking about computers, programming, databases, 3d printers and lately quadcopters….. Nerdy!
Although I thought about defending my own impression of myself I have to admit…
…As the one that my friends tend to ask about anything technical it was going to be a hard battle to win.
So “Nerdy” I am…
To be honest I actually don’t mind the term although I am probably not exactly as some on-line dictionaries explain it…
“A person who is single-minded or accomplished in scientific or technical pursuits but is felt to be socially inept”
Any one that knows me will certainly not call me “socially inept”.
“One obsessed with something specified: a computer nerd.”
Which is probably what my friends were thinking when they used the term.
So when I start talking about System development or statistical modelling then you will probably think the same.
One of the things I love doing as a “computer nerd” is analysing our in house database to find horse racing systems.
Horse Racing Ratings
Lately I have been spending a great deal of time on developing ratings.
This is where you actually assign a number to each runner in a race and then rank them by that number or simply use the rating you have assigned them.
The official rating (OR) which you find on race cards is an example of this…
The fascination is in the way you create the ratings.
A trick you may want to use is to combine a number of ratings from different sources to create what some people refer to as “Power Ratings”.
So you could use the OR, RPR from the racing post and another rating like Sporting Life’s 5 star rating.
Add them altogether and you have ratings from 3 different sources which may point to another winner rather than the favourite.
I would suggest sticking to handicaps when you begin purely because all runners tend to be rated unlike say “maidens”.
I have tried this myself in the past and it can work quite well but the downside is the work involved getting all the information together daily.
I much prefer automation, and because of that I like to build my ratings based on statistical information.
How often a horse that came 1st place last time out…Wins.
How often a 3 year old Horse wins a handicap.
You can see an example of how you could do it here.
I am a great believer in ratings (not just because I am a nerd) because I feel they give you a consistent way of selecting runners which tends to also give you a consistent strike rate.
The trick is to find the ones that offer value.
Thank you as always for reading I really appreciate it.
Malcolm Pett is the creator of the Greyhorse Bot which has been automating betting since 2006 – http://greyhorsebot.com
15:05:00 Sandown 1 Alonsoa – win bet 11/8 Boylesport