I've been following a lay service for the past few months that has done extremely well.
Today I've just noticed on their website that they share a lot of their method for finding horses to lay.
So reading between the lines a little here is a quick guide to finding horses to lay.
The starting point for any lay method is to find a selection that is likely to be over bet.
Basically that means find one that punters and pundits think has a better chance than it is.
One key indicator, and it's hinted at on the ELM site, is a horse that finished in the places last time out.
Pundits and punters are prone to thinking that a horse that placed last time out is knocking on the door and so they bet the horse without regard for other factors.
So step one is to find a horse that ran well last time.
Step two is to find a reason that the good run is not relavent to today's race.
And by that we essentially mean find key differences between the last race and this race. And then investigate those differences to see if they are negatives for the horse in question.
On the ELM site they give three factors and I suspect that these are what they use for their selections.
- Check the going – has the horse run well on today's going. Was the good previous run on different going?
- Has the horse won or run well on todays course (or type of course). Was the good previous run on a similar or different course?
- Is the trip suitable – has the horse run well over todays trip. Was the previous good run over the same trip?
Finding false prices and horses to lay is not difficult. The reason people fail is because they quit when they hit a few losing bets and they don't put in enough effort into getting the best price that they can.
Source: ELM Elite
Southwell 3.20 Pittodrie Star – Each way bet