We have two jumps meetings today and the going at both is heavy.
So today we are going to look at trainers that do well with their horses when the going turns heavy.
Our shortlist comes from a system that was published a year ago over at the MYBP site.
The system threw up an 125/1 winner the other day, but of course to hit those sorts of winners you've got to back a lot of outsiders and a lot of losers.
So what I thought I'd do is give you all the selections from the system today with my thoughts on which might prevail.
They all run at Ffos Las…
12.45 Rio De Sivola – Not a lot of form in this race and I can't really have an opinion on this one.
2.15 Black is Beautiful – Bottom weight with a claimer on board who knows how to win, but despite this being a Heavy system this one has no heavy form. But if there was going to be a big priced winner from this system today, this would be the one. At 14/1 and 9 running I might have a little each way on this one.
2.45 Incentivise – The market leaders here (including Incentivise) have a stone on the top weight and if you watched our selection get turned over on Saturday you'll know that could make a difference in this going. Incentivise has won both starts this year, both at this grade and at 3 furlongs further. It is forecast favourite and I like to look outside of the favourites but of course favourites win. I'm making this the selection for today.
3.15 Ullis De Vassy – Looks the likely winner but at evens is too short to offer value.
3.45 Benefique Royale – There is no previous form in this race, so any bet would be a guess!
If you want to download the system yourself you can get it at http://makeyourbettingpay.co.uk/
Ffos Las 2.45 Incentivise – win bet 10/3 Blue Square