I read a very interesting piece of research last night that I thought you might find useful (profitable).
The new stats guy at What Really Wins Money, Sean Trivass, has investigated how jockeys perform when they get down to their minimum weight.
If you look at the jockey stats at Racing Post for any jockey at the top of the page it gives the lowest riding weight in the last 12 months.
Sean's idea was that maybe it's profitable to bet jockeys when they ride at their minimum weight.
His logic was that if the jockey had made a big effort to get his weight to it's lowest then there must be good reason IE he's onto a winner.
Sean researched the last 10 years to discover that pretty much that you would lose money across the board if you backed all jockeys when they ride at their minimum weight!
So down but not out he proceeded to work out a winning weight for each jockey.
It's worth noting that this is research looking back at what would have been profitable so essentially it is back fitted data and in my opinion needs checking forward.
There are tables for the best weight in each of the last two years but alas these are only glimpsed at in an accompanying video.
Here is an example of the data given
Jockey | Best Riding Wgt | Rides | Wins | P/L @ BSP | ROI BSP
AP McCoy 10-9 238 53 £44.60 18.74%
R Johnson 10-4 161 25 £113.29 70.37%
A Coleman 11-4 102 15 £115.05 112.79%
So what do we think about that?
My opinion is that AP will win on anything that's capable of winning whatever weight he is at.
These weights will be the weight carried, so the heavier weights will be with lead on board to make the handicappers allocated weight.
For example Aiden Coleman above has a lowest weight of 10-0 I don't imagine that he put on a stone and 4 pounds when he rides one at the top of the handicap.
I think there is some profitable system buried in this research somewhere but I'm not yet sure what it is.
It may be more along the lines of laying a jockey when he has a ride at his lowest weight because when AP gets himself down to 10-2 he probably isn't at his strongest (this is a guy who is 5′ 10″)
Also when a rider is at their lowest weight we know that that is their weight, not one that has been adjusted by the handicapper.
I'll finish off with what I think are 3 interesting stats from the lowest weight table.
Jockey | Lowest Rdg Wgt | Rides | Wins | P/L @ BSP | ROI BSP
AP McCoy 10-2 8 1 -£4.84 -60.52%
P Moloney 10-0 109 10 -£19.68 -18.05%
Jamie Moore 10-0 132 9 -£31.61 -23.94%
If you have an opinion on this or know of any other research along similar lines please let me know in the comments below.
Today's Selection
Ayr 4.00 Sammy Spiderman – each way bet
photo credit: BrianScott via photopin cc
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In my 40 years form study I’ve never seen weights as a way to find winners, whether it’s jockeys, weight adjusted ratings, top or bottom weights etc.
There are too many other factors at play to make weight significant.