I was looking around for inspiration this morning trying to decide what to share with you and John Burkes work appeared in a few places I looked so I thought let's make it John Burke day.
You already know that John writes the Monday column here at Daily Punt and that he is the man behind the Victor Value tipping service (Try for £1 here)
And he writes for the On Course Profits magazine we mentioned yesterday.
So today I've got his tips from the Betting School and an interesting article from On Course Profits.
John's article is entitled
Key Factors: How many is too many?
In it he argues that we should restrict our form research to just a few key factors about each horse and that information overload can turn us all into losers.
John also shares some academic research conducted in North America which armed horse racing tipsters with various amounts of information and asked then to pick the likely winner from the form they were provided.
Interestingly with only 5 items of information, the handicapper’s accuracy in identifying approximately 18% of winners was almost exactly the same as when they had 40 pieces of information to work with.
Three of the eight tipsters became less accurate the more data they were provided with, three were equally accurate with 5 items of form and 40 and only two were more accurate with the full 40 data points.
You can read the full article here https://www.oncourseprofits.com/improve-horse-race-analysis/
Below is John's post from the Betting School members forum for today's domestic racing…
THURSDAY KEY STAT POINTERS
Trainer David Pipe is 5 winners from 21 runners 24% +16 10 placed 48% with his runners in handicaps at the track since 2014. That record is much improved if you focus on when he just sends the one runner to the course – 5 winners from 11 runners 45% +25.13 A/E 2.78 7 placed 64%. Dell’ Arca is is sole runner at the course today.
I was going to go each way on his chance in this handicap hurdle but two of the nine declared runners are also declared to run at Towcester so we could be down to just the seven runners.
2:50 – Dell’Arca – 16/1 @ Lads & BV
Trainer Harry Whittington is 5 winners from 14 runners 36% +11 8 placed 57% in the past 4 years at Huntingdon and he saddles one runner today Hoke Colburn in the 3:55.
The 6-year-old Hoke Colburn won a handicap hurdle over 2m 4f at Southwell on his last start 79 days ago. That win came on good ground but he won a NHF race on soft going back in May 2016. The handicapper has put him up 4lb for that win but this will only be his 6th start over hurdles so there is every chance he can defy his new mark. Steps up 3m today but on pedigree there is a chance he will stay and he shaped on his last run that further would suit.
3:55 – Hoke Colburn -6/1 @ B365 & BV
Henry Oliver is a trainer whose runners in handicaps are worth having onside at Towcester. Since the start of 2014 he’s had 8 winners from 19 runners 42% +23.93 A/E 1.94 12 placed 63%. He also is a trainer who does well with his handicap hurdle debutants – 7 winners from 24 runners 29% +24.5 A/E 2.3 12 placed 50% since 2014.
Fairy Pol is his runner in the 2m 3f handicap hurdle at 2:55. The 5-year-old has only had the four starts under rules and won a maiden hurdle here over 2m back in October. The mare seems to be improving with her races and makes her handicap debut here. A mark of 117 is tough but she has scope for a bit more progress. At a double figure price it might be wise to go each way about her chance here.
2:55 – Fairy Pol – 12/1 @ WH
Good luck with all your Bets