July Cup Early Look

Good morning all,

With “Super Saturday” looming, and a glut of good races all taking place within an hour I thought I'd take a look at a few of them this week, as I'll never be able to cover them all on the Saturday Preview!

I'll start with the July Cup, which may be lacking a couple of the big names but is still a fascinating race. I think there's a bit of value and my thoughts are on the main piece. 

July Cup Preview

Godolphin’s Blue Point heads up the market at a general 3-1. On his Ascot win in the King’s Stand you can say he deserves to be favourite, and as you might remember I wanted to be very much with him that day. But that was due to the conditions – very fast ground, Ascot, and the fact he was always going to get a good tow into the race, courtesy of Lady Aurelia and Battaash, and those conditions are not going to be replicated here. I’m looking to take him on.

U S Navy Flag is second in at around 9-2, but I’m not really seeing it. The theory seems to be that, as he leads over 7f/1m before weakening, that this 6f will suit him well, but does he have true sprinter’s pace? I’m not sure he does, and if I’m not sure, then I can swerve 9-2 all day long.

Redkirk Warrior seemingly had his limitations exposed at Ascot under conditions that suit, and I don’t really see why he should do any better here. But Dreamfield is a bit more interesting. Backed as if a victory was a formality in the Wokingham, he went off a ridiculously short price and whilst he did find one too good in the shape of Bacchus, for one so inexperienced it still has to go down as a cracking effort. There’s the distinct possibility of more to come, the ground should be fine and if the draw is kind to him, I can see him going well.

Eqtidaar and Sands Of Mali finished 1-2 in the Commonwealth Cup and I’m surprised that the latter is a bigger price than the former here. I thought he was a bit unlucky at Ascot, had he fared better with the draw I think he’d have come out on top. Eqtidaar lugged left once he hit the front and to his credit found enough to hold Sands Of Mali off, but I reckon the tables will be turned on Saturday. A match bet in the making…

And who else makes some appeal? Step forward Limato. Finally connections all see sense and stop faffing around with him over 7f and a mile and revert him to what is undoubtedly his best trip. There’s been every excuse under the sun wheeled out for his poor performances from hay fever to the stars not being aligned correctly but let’s not forget – this is a genuine G1 sprinter when he’s on song, as he showed when second to Harry Angel last year. Neither should we forget he was giving him 6lb, which in retrospect was mission impossible. He won this back in 2016, seems to come alive here, and at this stage, the general 12-1 makes plenty of e/w appeal. He's my bet at this stage.

Uttoxeter's card tonight is pretty awful, in truth, and there's not much to interest me, but I'm going to give Undisputed another chance in the 8.30 after a much better run last time out. She's a bit tricky and needs delivering late, but her close fourth to Not Now Seamus at Southwell last time is decent enough and with the winner going in again since, the form looks solid. G For Ginger would have a terrific chance on her Worcester form of last year but she's not reproduced it since and she may be better at slightly shorter.

Today's selection – Undisputed 8.30 Uttoxeter

Good luck with all your bets today,

David.

 

2 Responses to July Cup Early Look

  1. Ken says:

    Really enjoy reading your article every day there is always some think in your writing that makes horse racing more enjoyable thanks and keep going

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