Good morning all,
Really busy day yesterday as we decided to go in the Silver Ring rather than Tatts – all small business but always busy and the day passed by very quickly once we got going.
We were quite neat The Sheik when he fell off in the Town Plate and over the rails but thankfully he was all smiles and there was no serious injury. For the record, Bivouac, the Nicky Henderson trained hurdler/chaser won the race, but by the time they were going past us at the furlong pole, you've never seen horses (and jockeys) going so slowly!
My thoughts on Day 2 on the main piece, but I have to say it looks another day for small stakes!
1.50 – Bet 365 Silvery Bunbury Cup (7f)
The one I like here is Fawaareq, who has progressed nicely this season, seems impervious to the ground, stays this trip well and has form at the track. The good pace here will help him settle better, which was rather his undoing at Haydock last time when they didn’t go fast early. A good run here looks almost certain.
Parfait is the obvious one as he should be carrying another 7lb after his Ascot effort but this will be different ground, and I’m happy to look elsewhere for the winner.
2.25 Duchess Of Cambridge Stakes (6f)
Like so many 2-y-o races, I find these hard to read as something , particularly amongst the fairer sex, can improve no end at this stage of the year and a winner that’s hard to find can pop up. On saying that, with the exception of the 20-1 Lucky Kristale back in 2013, the market has been a fair indicator over the past few years.
Clemmie is the one to beat on form, she ran well in the Albany at Royal Ascot and followed that up with an easy win at the Curragh last time, but she’s not my sort of price and I’d rather have a look for something e/w. There’s a case to be argued that Mamba Noire, third to Clemmie at the Curragh, is improving again and might get a bit closer here, with this track likely to suit. 33-1 looks big enough for me to try a small e/w bet.
The speed figures point towards Nyaleti, second to September in the Chesham but I wonder whether she’ll be able to lead these speedsters dropping back to 6f from 7. If she can, then she’s a great chance as her stamina will kick in late but I’m not convinced she can, plus there’s simply too many from the Johnston yard running like drains to be confident (again a mixed bad yesterday, two good winners and some that ran well below par).
3.00 Newmarket – Bet365 Handicap (1m2f)
Over the past 4 years this, however, has been the Mark Johnston show, and Titi Makfi will be top of plenty of people’s lists after racking up a 4-timer. She showed she gets this trip at Chester last time out and will undoubtedly have more to come. However, I rather prefer Monticello, improving and has some track form, and still looks on a good mark. Again though, whether you can fully trust the yard at present is a moot point but both have obvious chances. Not a race to bet on for me.
3.35 Newmarket – Falmouth Stakes
Roly Poly might be allowed her own way up front here, but she’s never been a horse I’ve ever wanted to back at shotish prices and I’d rather throw a couple of quid at Delectation, who looked quite smart when trained by Bryan Smart last year and finished a never-nearer fourth in the German 1000 Guineas on her latest start. I don’t think she will mind the ground, and isn’t as far behind on form as her price makes her out to be.
Today's selection – Fawaareq 1.50 Newmarket
Good luck with all your bets today,