Good morning all,

Inside today’s main piece I’m looking back at the Falmouth Stakes and two of my standout performances from last week’s July Festival. Plus, I have couple of each way fancies at Killarney.

Baeed Blitz’s Rivals

Sea The Stars remains the best Derby winner since Shergar and whilst he’s been a success at stud he hasn’t yet produced an outstanding horse. Maybe that's about to change with Baeed.  The William Haggas trained colt stamped himself a high-class horse with any amount of scope for improvement when winning the Listed Sir Henry Cecil Stakes on day one of the July Festival.

Baeed cruised to a 4-length victory against some decent opponents, despite making a poor start.  Leading a furlong out he produced a good turn of foot to go clear of his rivals. Now unbeaten on his three career starts. He’s an exciting prospect who produced a Group 1 level performance to win on Thursday.

A full brother to Hukum, won the 1m 6f Group 3 at York on Saturday, Baeed should stay 1m 2f in due course. There’s a good chance he will end up the best 3-year-old by the end of the season.  Mind you a certain St Mark’s Basilica stands in his way.  

Falmouth Stakes

Friday’s Group 1 Falmouth Stakes brought together the classic generation fillies with the older fillies & mares. It promised to be great race and so it proved. Not only did the race have a quality look about it but there was also a good-sized field which isn’t often the case.

The first three home in the Coronation Stakes at Royal Ascot came to the fore but the positions were altered. Snow Lantern runner-up at Ascot, got the strong pace she needed and although she was keen once again, she managed to get plenty of cover in the big field.  It looked like the daughter of Frankel might not get a clear run but she muscled her way into the clear and once she hit the rising ground, she powered home to get up in the final strides.

There was just ½ between the winner and runner-up Mother Earth.  The English 1.000 Guineas winner appreciated the return to quicker ground and went one better than she had done in the Coronation Stakes.

Coronation Stakes winner Alcohol Free had the run of the race out in front. It was a good run from the filly who was only caught close to home.

Lady Bowthorpe did the best of the older horses and didn’t get the best of runs two furlongs out. Once in the clear she was finishing off her race strongly to take 4^th.

The potentially exciting Primo Bacio, who had to miss Royal Ascot due to soft ground, was another to not get the clearest of passages when making her effort a furlong out. Like Lady Bowthorpe, another doing her best work at the finish.

What Next?

Snow Lantern was the best filly on the day and she's open to further improvement. She’s bred to get 1m 2f so the Group 1 Nassau Stakes would seem a good target for her but she does need to settle better to stay the trip.

Lady Bowthorpe probably prefers a slightly easier surface than she got on Friday. In the circumstances she did well.  There is a Group 1 race to be won with her against her own sex when she gets her ground.

Primo Bacio like the winner a 3-year-old travelled through the race like a Group 1 filly. Given the way the race panned out her effort can be marked up a little. There should be other days for her at this level when she gets a sound surface.

Native's Superlative Performance.  

Native Trial’s win in the Group 2 Superlative Stakes was over shadowed by Starman’s success in the July Cup. However, I think we saw a smart horse in the making in the son of Oasis Dream. A winner on his Sandown racecourse debut. He’s a “big unit” but he’s still a shade green. It took jockey William Buick time to get the colt organised. However, once he started to roll, he cut down Dhabab close to home and held off the strong finishing Masekela. 

After the race trainer Charlie Appleby was talking about the Group 1 National Stakes at the Curragh as a target for the horse.  A race the trainer won with Quorto in 2018 and Pinatubo in 2019. He proved effective on Saturday’s good to firm ground but given his size he won’t be inconvenienced by some juice in the ground either.

He will need to improve again to beat the best of the juveniles later in the season but he’s got the scope to do so and more importantly for connections he should make up into a grand 3-year-old miler next year.

I don’t have the time to go through last week’s eyecatchers today. However, they will be in tomorrow’s column. I’m off across the Irish Sea to see to Killarney for a couple of big priced picks.

Tuesday Racing

Killarney

5:55 – Bardo Contiguo’s sole career win came at Tipperary (good to soft) last October. Looked to be returning to form when a 3-length 3^rd of 11 at Ballinrobe 22-days ago. Get’s the first time cheekpieces today and has a handy low draw in stall 5.

6:25 – No Thanks was a strong finishing neck 2^nd of 9 at Limerick over today’s distance last time. Up 1lb here but Sam Ewing takes off 5lb and the 5-year-old should be capable of winning a staying handicap off his present mark.  

High class juvenile hurdler and Cheltenham winner Jeff Kidder looks thrown in off a flat handicap mark of just 65 (rated 137 over hurdles).  However, the bookies have him at odds on for this so a small each way play on No Thanks could pay dividends. Especially with William Hill paying 4 places.  

Tuesday selection:

6:25 – No Thanks (EW) – 16/1 @ William Hill (paying 4 places)

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Good luck with your Tuesday bets.

John

John Burke is the tipster behind the long standing Victor Value service you can join him here – https://victorvalue.uk