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Ladbroke Handicap Hurdle

Today Josh Wright looks at the stats for tomorrow's Ladbroke Handicap Hurdle, in the morning he'll be back with his selections.

By the way Josh shares his method for analysing races and how he focuese on certain types of races in this months Betting School Insiders Report (http://bettinginsiders.com)

3.35 Ascot: The Ladbroke Handicap Hurdle

Stats for 12 previous renewals

229 runners / 48 placed horses


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TRENDS

11/12 Top 4 LTO

  • 151 runners, 39 places…92% winners, 66% runners, 81% places
  • 1/78, 9 places finished 5th or worse LTO

11/12 Aged 5,6,7

  • 148 runners, 32 places…92% winners, 65% runners, 67% places
  • 4 YO: 1/53, 13 places…8% winners…27% runners, 23% places
  • 8YO+: 0/28, 3 places

12/12 carried 11-9 or less

  • 0/20, 3 places carried 11-10 or more

12/12 Had 0,1 or 2 wins only at a higher distance (over 16f)

  • 0/38, 4 places had won 3 or more times over further than the race distance (16f)
  • 0/31, 4 places had WON over 2m4f or further

***

Market/odds

11/12 priced between 13/2 – 40/1 SP

  • 1/20, 4 places priced 6/1 or shorter SP
  • 0/27, 3 places priced 50/1 or over SP

9/12 Top 7 in the market

  • 9/93 runners, 27 places…75% winners, 41% runners, 56% places

***

OTHER STATS

11/12 Had 0,1,2, runs in previous 90 days

  • 1/83, 18 places had 3 or more

12/12 had 0,1,2 HANDICAP WINS to their name only

  • 0/61, 12 places had 3 or more career handicap wins to name

10/12 had WON on at least one of previous 3 starts

  • 2/98, 19 places had not

11/12 had PLACED on at least one of previous 2 starts

  • 1/57, 7 places had not

11/12 had between 4-10 Hurdle Runs

  • 1/77, 13 places had 11 or more
  • 0/16, 4 places had 3 or fewer

***

  • 1/50, 10 places had 8 or more RUNS in handicap hurdles
  • 0/20, 2 places had 3 or more WINS in handicap hurdles
  • 0/23, 2 places had 5 or more HURDLE wins
  • 0/16, 3 places had 4 or fewer career runs

***

TRACK LTO (of interest)

  • Cheltenham: 4/50, 12 places
  • Newbury: 3/27, 11 places
  • Sandown: 0/39, 5 places

TRAINERS (of interest)

  • N Henderson: 3/22, 6 places
  • Gordon Elliot: 2/17, 4 places
  • 1 win each; D Pipe/A King/Miss Venetia Williams/Dan Skelton/H Morrison (M Pipe 2/17)
  • P Hobbs: 0/14, 3 places
  • Gary Moore: 0/12, 4 places
  • P Nicholls: 0/13, 4 places

***

So, those stats to focus on look to be

A top 4 placing last time out.

7 Year old or younger, maybe discounting 4 year olds.

Carrying 11 stone 9 pounds or less

2 or fewer handicap wins to name.

Placed on at least one of last two starts.

Had between 4 and 10 hurdle runs.

With question mark against horses that ran Sandown last time out.

At this stage that leaves a ‘shortlist’ of…

Renneti / Noble Inn / Jollys Cracked It / Hurricane Hollow / Unanimite / Winner Massagot / Sternrubin / Zarib / Galizzi / Vicenzo Mio (Sandown lto)

That's quite a long shortlist!

We could also look at  2 or fewer runs previous 90 days and a win in one of the previous 3 starts.

That would remove Jollys Cracked It / Unanimite / Zarib

I'll be back tomorrow with my final selection.

Josh

On Course Profits free Horse Racing magazine

RacingToProfit.co.uk

Today's Selection

15:05 Ascot Goodbye Dancer – eachway bet 11/1 Coral

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