After our day off yesterday we have a bumper Saturday message, including instructions from Connor Gallagher on how to analyse a race from a Trends perspective and a selection for this afternoons William Hill Lincoln.
First up a reminder to enter your selections in the free Sky Super 6 competition which has a rollover jackpot of £200,000 this week – click here.
Next up we have a footy perm from the guys at The Alternative Punters Syndicate (Free Trial) who gave us a small return last week.
Get All of John's Selections
When you Trial his Victor Value service
Just £7 for 14 Days
Top Rated ‘Best 5 Aways'
(Perm any 3 from 5 plus all 5 = 11 bets)
This pays £60 for £1 stakes if they all win.
How to use Trends Analysis to find winners by Connor Gallagher
One of the most common questions I’m asked by visitors to my Trends Betting website is “how can I use trends analysis to find more winners?” In today’s article I’ll be answering some of your questions about horse racing trends and how they can be utilised in the upcoming flat season.
Firstly, history dictates that the same type of horse wins certain races year in, year out. They all follow trends and statistics set by horses that have won the race in previous seasons. A trend analyst’s job is to research these trends thoroughly each year and highlight the horses running today that most closely match the profiles of previous winners. So, let’s get started on today’s Lincoln…
How to research a race for trends analysis
The first step is to find out the most recent winners of the race we are looking at. It’s up to you how far back you choose to go, but personally I would suggest around 10 – 15 years depending on the nature of the race. Any less and your data is more likely to be coincidental and any more than that and you risk analysing outdated statistics that expire as things change over the years.
Of course, the first place to start is the Racing Post. All you have to do is scroll to the bottom of the race card and click on “past winners”. However, this information is only available to paid members and will only display data from the last 10 years. So what do you do if you’re not a member at RacingPost.com?
Well, because I focus mainly on the top-class races, there will invariably be an entry on Wikipedia. So, using today’s Lincoln Handicap at Doncaster as an example, I begin by typing the following into Google…
“Lincoln Handicap Doncaster wiki”
The search results will then display a link to Wikipedia with the history of the Lincoln Handicap, including a list of previous winners. This will work for almost every major race on the British horse racing calendar.
Creating a trends spreadsheet
Next we want to research each of the previous winners. By far the easiest way to do this is by using an Excel spreadsheet. Start by listing the name of each horse and the year it won across the top of your spreadsheet. Down the left-hand side of your spreadsheet list all the various statistics that you wish to analyse.
• Official rating
• Racing Post rating
• Stall draw
• Best form
• Best winning form
• Highest class raced at
• Course and distance last time out
• Position last time out
• Did horse record highest career RPR last time out?
• Total races won
• Number of career runs
• Number of seasonal runs
• Days since last ran
• Recent form (last 4-6 runs)
• Win strike-rate %
• Winning form in big fields? (if applicable)
The list really is endless. And now comes the time consuming part. You have to manually find all the relevant information for every horse and record it in your spreadsheet. I use the Racing Post to find my data but you may prefer to use Sportinglife.com.
When you have finished you will have an in-depth spreadsheet detailing a wealth of form and statistics about the most recent winners of your chosen race. The next step involves sieving through this information to identify the most significant trends.
This is where many people will have their own opinions about what is important and what is not and is where the benefit of many years’ experience really counts. That said, there is no right or wrong way to identify trends, just make sure that the majority of all previous winners in your sample comply with the stat in question.
Personally I prefer to assign a points rating system to each trend to order them in order of strength. This way I can identify at-a-glance which horses running today tick the most important boxes. Obviously the more often you do this the easier you will find it and after a while you will find that certain trends really stand out.
Here are the main trends I have unearthed for today’s Lincoln Handicap…
Today’s Lincoln Handicap trends
• All 14 winners had won 2 or more races (3pts)
• All 14 winners had never ran over jumps (3pts)
• 13 of the last 14 winners had won at class 3+ level (3pts)
• 13 of the last 14 winner had 1 or less run since November (3pts)
• 13 of the last 14 winners had won at 1m+ (2pts)
• 13 of the last 14 winners were aged 4 – 6 (2pts)
• 12 of the last 14 winners had won 1 of last 4 runs (1pt)
• All of the last 10 winners had won a maximum of 3 handicaps (3pts)
Finding the winner
By researching the strongest trends from the last 10 – 15 years we can build a typical winner’s profile and identify a shortlist of horses running today that most closely match this profile.
This method is successful because trends analysis goes beyond the most obvious form figures which most punters use to make their daily selections. It can also help us to pinpoint horses at bigger prices that may have been underestimated by the bookies. And trends analysis isn’t just necessarily ideal for finding winners. The stats can also be used to identify false favourites that are worth opposing on the betting exchanges!
At this point you may be thinking to yourself that this seems like an awful lot of effort to rate a race. So is there a way to get reliable and up-to-date trends, statistics and selections for all the big races without the need for such intensive research and analysis? Yes!
I run a service called Trends Betting which has proved very profitable since launch in November 2012. In fact, members have made 62 points profit (98% ROI) to SP including recent winners at 4/1, 9/2, 5/1, 7/1, 10/1 and 50/1…
Trends Betting costs only £57 a year and this price will never go up as long as you stay with the service. This works out at only 16 pence a day!
So that includes all the trends, statistics and selections for up to 200 major races including the Cheltenham Festival, Grand National, 1000 & 2000 Guineas, Epsom Derby, Royal Ascot, Glorious Goodwood and many more…
There are only 50 places available so if my Trends Betting service sounds like something you’d be interested in, I’d really encourage you to sign-up today.
Today's Selection (which is a good fit for Connor's trends above)
Doncaster 3.05 Lahaag – each way bet – 10/1 Will Hill