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Long Distance Draw Bias

Does the draw effect the outcome of long distance races?

I was just perusing the cards for today and wondering if there is anything worth mailing about and I saw that Pontefract has a meeting.

A lovely little track where I had a great day out as a guest in hospitality a few years ago.

The other reason I like Pontefract is because it has a draw bias, that sometimes is factored into prices and sometimes isn't.

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It also in my view has a bias over long distance races. Something that a lot of punters don't think exists.

If you look at the Racing Post course map you can see that the 2 mile races start very close to the bend. So getting around that bend in front is an obvious advantage.

Image courtesy of Racing Post

And as Kevin Blake says getting caught wide from a poor draw is often more costly in longer races than shorter races

“While there is a common view that the draw matters less and less the longer the race distance, that isn't necessarily the case. Indeed, getting caught wide from a poor draw in a long-distance race is often more costly in longer races than shorter races, as more turns have to be negotiated.”

Kevin Blake – It Can Be Done

Here are the figures for 2018 and 2019 from Horse Race Base for the draw in races over 2m 1f and 2m 2f at Pontefract.

On Course Profits free Horse Racing magazine
The Criteria = The Stall Number

Every time I've looked at the draw at Pontefract, whatever the race distance, it's always been stall 2 that looks to have an advantage.

Only a small sample, but interesting all the same.

If that constitutes a system then this is today's qualifier.

Pontefract 3:20 Ginistrelli (Corrected)

Update: Apologies for the error, no excuse really, but mitigation it was a late night attempt to provide something of value. Neither the incorrect selection or the corrected won, but interestingly the stall 2 horse did shorten in running and I would imagine this happens often as the favoured horse gets the rail in front

All the best

Dave F

5 thoughts on “Long Distance Draw Bias”

  1. Hi, Dave
    If stall 2 has such an advantage, why have you selected Seinsational ? Stall 2 in this race is Ginistrelli, which I think has a great chance of a place anyway.
    I might be missing something ?

    John

  2. Hi Dave,
    Interesting comments in regard to Draw Bias at Pontefract. The horse you selected Seinesational actually races out of barrier 5 the horse that has barrier 2 is Ginistrelli.
    Kind Regards,
    Bruce

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