Hi all,

The Cheltenham Festival and the week leading up to it are intense. So, a couple of days off do wonders for the old brain. Well, they do for mine.  The festival is the most stressful four days of the whole year for a tipster. If you offered them the chance to end the week level most would snap your hand off.

Thankfully the racing calendar is mercifully free of high class jumps action for the next couple of weeks. Indeed, Saturday’s action in Britain is, to be charitable, low key compared to what we have been used to of late. If you want the better quality racing for your bets. Then you’ll be looking to Meydan where its World Cup Night and the Curragh where the new flat season gets underway.

Inside today’s main piece I’m looking forward to Saturday’s big mares only handicap hurdle at Newbury. Plus, I preview today's three mile handicap chase at Ludlow

Looking Ahead To The Weekend

The £100,000 Goffs UK bumper (3.50) and a Grade 2 mares’ novice hurdle (3.15) are the feature races at Newbury on Saturday. The bumper which is the most valuable race of the day but isn’t on ITV this afternoon. You can see why though. Just 5 of the 23 horses left in the race at Monday’s final confirmation stage have had a run.

The ITV4 cameras are covering three races from Newbury and they’re also at Kelso for four races.  With the Kelso feature race being a valuable 2m mares’ novice handicap hurdle (3.35) with £50,000 in guaranteed prize money.

It’s World Cup Night at Meydan on Saturday and there are high class fields for all five of the Group 1s at Meydan.

As a bonus the $10 million Dubai World Cup (3.55) and the Dubai Turf (3:10) & Sheema Classic (4:00) are being broadcasted by ITV

The new Irish flat season gets underway on Saturday at the Curragh. The highlights of an eight race card are the Group 3 Park Express Stakes (4.00) and Irish Lincolnshire (4.35).

So, a quiet weekend of racing in Britain with the best of the action overseas. The final declarations for Saturday’s Newbury & Kelso cards are due out this morning. I have a feeling that I won’t be having many bets at either meeting. However, that could of course all change in the next couple of days when I have seen the final fields.

For now, I suspect Meydan, and the Irish Lincolnshire will be provide the main focus from my betting.

Today I’m looking at the most interesting race on Newbury’s Saturday card.

Newbury – British EBF BetVictor ‘National Hunt' Mares' Novices' Hurdle (A Limited Handicap Hurdle) (Grade 2)

Looking at the trends which contain – 14 winners from 203 runners 48 placed.

All fourteen winners had finished in the first five on their last start.

Favs/Joint Favs have done well – 5 winners from 15 bets 33% +13.08 10 placed 67% (+19.17).

Eleven of the last 14 winners had been returned 9/4 & under on their latest start – 11 winners from 79 bets +18.08, 23 placed.

Ten of the 14 winners ran at Doncaster, Exeter, Huntingdon, or Newbury on their last start – 10 winners from 59 best +51.58, 20 placed.

The best performing trainers have been Nicky Henderson (3 winners), Noel Williams (2 winners), Charlie Longsdon (2 winners) and Oliver Sherwood (2 winners).  Only Noel Williams (Moviddy) had an entry in the race at Monday’s final confirmation stage.

Contenders:

Plenty of mares that are capable of further improvement going forward. Here are few from Monday’s entries that caught my eye.

Moviddy‘s yard won last year’s race and the 7-year-old has likely been aimed at this race. A winner of a Lingfield novice two starts back she finished a close-up second at Doncaster 22-days ago and remains progressive.

Ruby Island is the first of two Northern trained contenders. The 6-year-old won her first two starts over hurdles and looked a shade unlucky not to complete the hat trick when a neck 2^nd of 9 at Ayr 15-days ago.

The second Northern trained challenger I like is Aubis Walk trained by Nicky Richards. The 7-yeat-old got off the mark at the fourth attempt over hurdles when running out a comfortable winner at Sedgefield last month. Open to further improvement and looks on a workable mark for her handicap debut.

Lets Go To Vegas had to dig deep to prevail on her handicap hurdle debut at Ludlow 23-days ago. There was plenty to like about the mare’s attitude that day an although she’s 5lb higher in a likely deeper race so she shouldn’t be underestimated.

Blue Beach got off the mark at the third attempt over hurdles when winning a mares maiden hurdle at Huntingdon last month. That probably isn’t the strongest piece of form on offer but she’s open to further improvement.

Thursday Racing

Ludlow

The most interesting race on Thursday is Ludlow’s Bromfield Sand And Gravel Handicap Chase (4:10). The three mile contest has only attracted six runners but its still an intriguing puzzle. With a couple of unexposed young chasers in Concetto and Latitude taking on the more exposed handicappers in Head To The Stars and last year’s winner Tide Times.

Concetto has made all to win his first two starts over fences at Huntingdon and Musselburgh. Now 9lb higher but remains on a good mark in his hat trick bid. The one to beat.

Latitude has placed on all three of his three starts over the larger obstacles and he did win here over hurdles last year. A better chaser than a hurdler he stays 3m well and looks capable of winning off his present mark.   

Head To The Stars is a three time C&D winner and his three best RPR’s have also come over C&D.  The latest of his C&D successes came in December 2021. He’’s still 3lb higher above his last winning mark but he arguably put in one of his best performances when a 2 ½ length 2^nd of 6 over C&D last month. Can be ruled out around here.

Tide Times was dual C&D winner last March including this race. He gained a third C&D success in January, from 1lb lower in January. Pulled up in the Edinburgh National he’s another who has to be respected back over C&D that suits.

Venetia Williams has been struggling for winners of late, but she had a welcome double at Ffos Last yesterday. She saddles First Figaro. The 13-year-old returns from a 355-day lay off but his form figures returning from a 180+ day layoff are 1121 so he’s one to be interested in.

Thursday Selection:

I’m heading to Ludlow for today’s selection although it’s not in the race I have previewed above.

Ludlow

5:20 – Amrons Sage was still in contention when making a mistake at the last on handicap debut at Sandown last month. He’s not of this on sharper track and remains with potential. However, preference is for Duke Of Moravia. The 5-year-old has placed on two of his three starts over hurdles and was doing his best work at the finish when a 10 length 3rd of 14 on handicap debut at Warwick in December. He looks a staying chaser in the making. However, today’s extra 2f should suit and he rates today’s pick with Harry Cobden booked.

Duke Of Moravia – 5/1 @ Bet365.

Good luck with your Thursday bets.

John