Hi all,
The Derby is done and dusted. But the big stuff keeps coming.
This time next week, we’ll already be into Day 2 of Royal Ascot. Before that, we get the ideal warm-up: Sunday’s Prix Diane (the French Oaks) — a stylish prelude to the royal meeting.
Speaking of Ascot, Matt Bisogno has asked me to preview four races for Geegeez again this year. I did it last year and really enjoyed the challenge. Looking forward to doing it again.
What’s on This Weekend?
The weekend’s action is quieter in quality The Listed Scurry Stakes (2.40) at Sandown and the Listed Grand Cup (3.00) at York are the Saturday highlights, with Chester also featuring among seven races live on ITV.
York: Macmillan Sprint Handicap (Class 2) – 6f
Also at York, it’s the 54th Macmillan Charity Raceday. The big betting heat is the Macmillan Sprint Handicap (3:35).
Last year, James’s Delight, trained by Clive Cox, took the prize. I was on him ante-post and I’ll be trying to repeat the trick this time around.
Macmillan Sprint Trends to Watch
I’ve looked over the last 10 editions of the Macmillan Sprint — 187 runners, 10 winners. Four clear trends stood out. All 10 winners met these:
Best Finish in Last 3 Starts: Must include a 1st or 2nd
(0 wins from 55 who didn’t meet this – 7 placed)
Highest Class Run: Not in a Group 1 or 2
(0 from 41 – 4 place)
Handicap Experience: Must have 2 to 5 runs in handicaps
(0 from 74 with fewer or more – 8 placed, expected wins 5.5)
Track Record at York: No previous wins at the track
(0 from 20 – 1 placed).
Keep these in mind when you’re going through the field — they’ve been strong filters in recent years.
Macmillan Sprint Contenders to Watch
As of Monday’s final, confirmation stage, 35 entries remain. We can’t know the final field yet — unless you’ve got stable whispers — but even with the usual ante-post overrounds, some ‘ricks’ were showing.
Here are a few worth noting (odds as of 11am, Tuesday 10th):
Maelstrom – A clear outlier at 14/1 with William Hill, while as short as 5/1 with Coral and Ladbrokes. That gap won’t last long.
Diligently – From last year’s winning yard. Available at 16/1 with William Hill, but just 10/1 with Coral & Ladbrokes. The trainer has three entries, with Fast Track Harry the only one with a jockey booked so far.
Red Sand – Another price disparity: 20/1 with Paddy Power/Betfair Sportsbook, but 10/1 with Coral and Ladbrokes.
Admiral Churchill – Ranges from 10/1 (Paddy/Betfair) to 25/1 (Coral/Ladbrokes). That might reflect uncertainty over whether Paddy Twomey will send him over from Ireland. Also has an entry in the 7f handicap (1:50).
Easy Peeler – An eyecatching third to Maelstrom at Haydock last time. Available at a standout 33/1 with Paddy Power/Betfair, but as low as 14/1 with Coral/Ladbrokes. Caveat: she also holds an entry in Friday’s fillies’ handicap, so check declarations.
Good luck with your Wednesday bets.
John