Monday Winners & A Trainer To Follow

Morning all,

It’s a new month and there’s just over 2 months of the flat season left. The season has gone so fast. Mind you let’s not wish away the season too quick, as there’s plenty left to enjoy.

In this week’s column. I’m covering a wide range of racing topics from the news. From the weekend’s Sandown action, to the accuracy of going descriptions, a trainer who’s hitting some form and short trends look at Saturday’s big Group 1 race the Sprint Cup at Haydock.

You can find my thoughts on these topics and of course the Monday selections inside.

Palace Puts In Regal Performance

You can usually rely on John Gosden to unleash a nice juvenile, at Sandown, at this time of year and he did so on Friday with Palace Pier.

The well backed favourite put in a visually impressive performance when winning oh his racecourse debut. He knew his job, was always up in prominent position and was a bit green when he took up the running a furlong out, before striding out to win by 3 ¾ lengths.

It’s early days for the colt but there was plenty to like about his win and we should be hearing more about him in the coming weeks.

There looked to be some nice 2-year-old’s in the field and it’s a race that will be worth watching, as there should be plenty of winner to come out of it.

and its another winner for Kingman

Kingman has made a good start to his stallion career. Palace Pier’s victory was the sires 31st juvenile winner on the turf from 141 runners. A 22%-win strike rate and if you had have backed all his juvenile runners you would have made a £21.06 profit to a £1 stake.

It’s seven years since Kingman won the Solario Stakes at this meeting and it looks like he’s got another useful recruit in the likeable Palace Pier.

Cox Remains Positive After Solario Success

Saturday’s Group 3 Solario Stakes looked a good renewal on paper despite the late defection of Visinari.

The race produced a fantastic finish with Positive, trained by Clive Cox, just holding off Kameko and Al Suhail at the line. Just a length separated the first three home, with five lengths back to the fourth.

Positive built on his second placed effort to Pinatubo at Goodwood. He wandered a little under pressure inside the final furlong probably down to inexperience, but he found plenty when required.

Trainer Clive Cox had said he was one of the best juveniles he’s trained after the colt had won on his racecourse debut and so it’s proving.

The Dewhurst Stakes in the autumn is now on the agenda and he will be worth his place in that Group 1 race. For connections the dream of 2,000 Guineas success is still alive.

The form of Pinatubo’s Vintage Stakes is certainly working out very well with the third, Lope Y Fernandez winning a Group 3 at the Curragh on Friday evening.

but Kameko has a future

Despite the bunched finish. The form looks solid with the race run at strong pace courtesy of Al Suhail’s pacemaker Full Verse.

Kameko a winner on his racecourse debut over C&D, ran on strongly all the way to the line and the son of Kitten’s Joy looks to have a good future over further.

Al Suhail, is clearly a colt with plenty of ability but he’s a nervy sort who was very keen when winning at Yarmouth. Hence the use of the pacemaker which allowed the colt to settle much better. This was an improved performance and he’s a horse bred to be better over 1m plus. Let’s hope his temperament doesn’t get the better of him.

Perrett’s No Longer Blue

It’s amazing how punters & bookmakers tend overreact to one bad run. Lavender’s Blue had created a good impression on her first two starts this season and was sent of just 16/1 for the Epsom Oaks. A poor run there, she was almost tailed off last, but something was clearly amiss with her.

Given time to recover and returning from a 92-day absence she showed a good change of gear to win the Group 3 Atalanta Stakes at Sandown. Sent off an unfancied 12/1 she was far to classy for her seven rivals, including odds on favourite Jubiloso.

The drop back to a mile was in the filly’s favour and she will stay at that distance for now. The Group 1 Sun Chariot Stakes is now firmly in her sights, a race she is now a best priced 13/2 with Sky Bet. If the ground is good or quicker at Newmarket, it will take a good one to stop her.

Jubiloso lets down favourite backers again.

Jubiloso who had finished third in the Group 1 Coronation Stakes at Royal Ascot two starts back was sent off the 4/5 favourite. The drop back to 7f hadn’t suited her at Goodwood but the step back to a mile was expected to see her back in the winner’s enclosure.

She was still in the led coming two furlongs out but sadly for her backers, once headed she didn’t find anything for pressure and finished a well beaten 7th.

All in all, a very disappointing run. What do connections now do with this superbly bred filly? Maybe making the running didn’t suit, but she had made all to win at Newbury back in May, or perhaps she found the ground to quick. Whatever the reason she now has question to answer and it would be a brave punter who took a short price about her again.

The Going Is Good Or Is It?

I don’t know what you think about official going descriptions. I’m finding them perplexing at present. For Example; looking at the times for Ffos Las on Thursday. The official going description was good but looking at the Racing Post time figures. The last four races on the Ffos Las card were run on firm going. That’s a big difference between good and firm ground.

It’s not an isolated case either. Just recently we had Carlisle reporting the going has heavy, but race times indicated that the going was no worse than good to soft. I could go on.

Punting is tough enough but if racecourses are reporting incorrect going, our task is being made even harder.

Last week I highlighted to my subscribers that Justanotherbottle was ready to win after his recent York run and he duly obliged at Sandown on Saturday. If you want last weeks eyecatchers you can join me here.

Alan King’s Coming To The Boil

I mentioned earlier, I had a trainer whose runners are worth following.

Alan King's last three runners have won.  He’s had 5 winners from 27 runners 8 placed in the past three weeks and he's 4 winners from 12 runners + 11 6 placed with his two and three year-olds.

He’s got a few runners entered up this week all be worth noting, but in particularly his 2 & 3-year-olds.

Haydock Sprint Cup Trends

Next weekend’s big race is the 6f Group 1 Sprint Cup at Haydock. For those of you like such things here are some notable ten-year trends:

Horses Age:

3-year-old’s – 5 winners from 40 runners A/E 1.55 9 placed
4-year-old’s – 0 winners from 41 runners 9 placed
5-year-old+ – 5 winners from 62 runners A/E 1.11 13 placed

Odds SP:

5/1 & under – 4 winners from 20 runners A/E 0.84 10 placed
11/2 to 14/1 – 6 winners from 42 runners A/E 1.34 16 placed
15/1 & bigger – 0 winners from 76 runners A/E 1.11 4 placed

Days Since Last Run:

1 to 15-days – 1 winner from 49 runners A/E 0.25 7 placed
16 to 30-days – 2 winners from 19 runners A/E 1.67 4 placed
30 to 45-days – 0 winners from 18 runners 2 placed
46 to 60-days – 5 winners from 32 runners A/E 1.38 14 placed
60+ days – 2 winners from 20 runners A/E 1.08 3 placed

Last Time Out Placing:

1st – 4 winners from 35 runners A/E 0.92 11 placed
2nd & 3rd – 3 winners from 25 runners A/E 1.2 6 placed
4th or worse – 3 winners from 78 runners A/E 0.57 13 placed

Distance Move:

Down 2f – 1 winner from 4 runners A/E 2.33 2 placed
Down 1f – 1 winner from 21 runners A/E 0.54 3 placed
Same – 7 winners from 74 runners A/E 1.07 20 placed
Up – 1 winner from 39 runners A/E 0.30 5 placed

Hopefully the above trends will help you identify the winner of this year’s race.

I will be giving Victor Value subscribers my ante post pick later in the week. If you want my Sprint Cup selection and future ante-post selections, you can get them first here. 

Monday Selection:

Not the best of days for solid betting opportunities but I have a couple of tentative selections.

Chepstow

3:45 – Graphite Storm won at Newmarket (good to firm) two starts back before struggling to land a blow on soft ground last time. Has won on soft ground in the past but seems to prefer quicker ground these days. The 5-year-old is well handicapped and a return to a sounder surface will be in his favour.

Windsor

5:30 – Max’s Thunder is having his first start for David Simcock today. Last time out the colt finished 3rd of 7 in a Newmarket seller. Shaping like the step up to a mile would suit. Jamie Spencer takes the ride and the selection looks on competitive mark for his nursery debut.

Until next week.

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