Today I'm going to carry on with looking at strategies for two year old maiden races with another angle that I like to use for my own bets.
That is the breeding and specifically the two year old sire stats.
I have a few sires that I follow and I'll share one of those with you today.
The first one is Street Cry.
The overall figures for all Street Cry progeny running as 2 year olds since they first started appearing in 2006 are as follows.
Runners = 390
Winners = 62
Strike Rate = 15.9%
SP Profit = 16.75
SP ROI = 4.29%
Not bad stats for blindly backing all runners.
As you might expect Street Cry babies are better suited to some conditions than to others and if we can find some of these preferences we can improve those numbers.
The first thing I look at when looking at the stats for a particular sire is the distance that his off spring prefer.
In this case if we strike out the sprints we can improve the numbers a little…
Runners = 360
Winners = 59
Strike Rate = 16.39%
SP Profit = 26.5
SP ROI = 7.36%
Next I look at whether they prefer turf or dirt, and in this case there is a definite preference for turf
The third thing I do is to strike out horses that have had too many runs.
The reason I do that is because the advantage we get by following sires is that we can find bets on runners that are not yet exposed IE they have no, or little form. Once they have had a few runs their ability is known and any value has gone.
Whether a horse runs well first time out or needs a run is more down to the trainers ability and methods than the breeding of a horse.
We could get deep into which trainers do better first time up and which prefer to give their charges a schooling run first.
But for now lets just look at all horses out of Street Cry running in a turf maiden on their first or second start.
Runners = 168
Winners = 38
Strike Rate = 22.62%
SP Profit = 116.02
SP ROI = 69.06%
If you have the time and access to Horse Race Base you can build yourself a portfolio of similar angles which will put you on track for maiden profits.
Todays Selections courtesy of the Betting Insiders Club.
Yesterday Alwilda (adv 9/4) continued the remarkable current run of Sir Mark Prescott with his 3yo handicappers having won 10 races from 19 runners (53%) during July.
For today we turn to a couple of selections from a live community trial based on Mark “Statman” Foley’s brand new “Owner Watch” angle, which has been going great guns to date with over 30 points profit in just 6 weeks.
Stagemanship (Nott 1455) – 9/4 Ladbrokes, William Hill.