by Dave French

February 7, 2018

We've lost all the turf racing in the UK today but we have racing at Fairyhouse and there's a runner there that qualifies on a system that was published in this months On Course Profits magazine.

I've pasted below the introduction to the article and have included the selection that the system picked today…

Horse Racing trainers to make a profit on heavy ground, The Mudslingers including Willie Mullins

A few years ago, I created a betting system based on trainers whose runners excel under testing ground conditions. We trialled this over at the Betting School and we made a tidy profit from the mudslingers.

The theory behind the system was that certain trainers are adept at training dour staying types or have training facilities that promote performance on soft and heavy ground. In addition, the ability to handle testing ground is often inherited from the sire and many owners and trainers alike will tend to purchase stock from the same sires on a regular basis, especially if they have had success from that family in the past.

The system was created using the database HorseRaceBase.

Since 2015, this top-class database has undergone significant improvements that allow much deeper analysis of the data it stores. With this in mind, I have decided to revisit this system and see what improvements we can make to the original set of rules that were successful when we first trialled it. We also have 3 more years’ worth of data to play with.

When I crunched the numbers, one trainer stood head and shoulders above the rest in terms of the number of winners on soft to heavy and heavy ground. That trainer was Willie Mullins.

I am not quite sure how we did not pick up on this in the original system?

Is Willie Mullins the one that got away?

I have a list of trainers who I just cannot read and they include Willie Mullins and Aiden O’Brien. When I back a Mullins favourite who looks like he cannot lose, it flops. When I take on the Mullins favourite with his second and third string, the favourite hoses up. However, I may just have found the angle I am looking for to profit from the most successful national hunt trainer in recent times.

You can read the full article in this months On Course Profits magazine which is available for free here – https://oncourseprofits.com

Today's selection is Lareena in the 2:15 at Fairyhouse currently 9/4 with Skybet

Disclaimer: All views and opinions expressed in this article are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the official policy or position of TGH Trading Ltd or it's employees.

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Dave French

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