Hi all,
Sorry no column yesterday due to internet issues.
First though a preview of Saturday’s big race the Virgin Bet Queen's Cup at Musselburgh.
It's Easter weekend, and while it's a relatively quiet Saturday, Musselburgh takes centre stage with its premier Flat card of the year. The highlight is the £100,000 Virgin Bet Queen's Cup (3:35), a valuable early-season handicap that has grown in stature since the prize money boost.
Over at Haydock, the jumps card features two Challenger Series finals and the Unibet Middle Distance Veterans' Series final. Meanwhile, across the Irish Sea, Fairyhouse's Easter three-day Irish Grand National meeting kicks off. Sunday offers two Grade 1 contests, leading up to the main event on Easter Monday: the Boylesports Irish Grand National.
Musselburgh: Virgin Bet Queen's Cup (Class 2) – 1m 6f
I haven't delved deeply into the race yet, but some trends from the eight previous runnings (108 runners) might help narrow down the field:
All eight winners were aged between 4 and 7.
Each had finished 1st, 2nd, or 3rd in one of their last three runs.
All had their last run in Class 1, 2, or 3 races.
While it's a small sample size, these trends look consistent. Typically, about half the final field meets will meet these criteria, buts it's a useful starting point for shortlisting contenders.
Early Contenders:
As of Monday’s final, confirmation stage, 23 horses remain entered, with a maximum field of 14 expected.
Liam Swagger: Odds vary, with Paddy Power listing him at 3/1 and William Hill offering a standout 8/1. If he’s declared, that 8/1 is excellent value.
Wild Waves: Similarly, he's as short as 5/1 with Coral & Ladbrokes but available at 8/1 with bet365. Again, if declared, expect shorter odds on the day.
If you're keen on either, it might be wise to take advantage of bookies generosity
Wise Eagle: The 2023 winner is set to attempt a repeat, though he'll carry 5lb more this time. Chillingham has started to drop down the handicap. He isn’t the easiest to win with but he’s with a trainer I like in Ed Bethall.
Charlie Johnston's Entries: The Johnston yard, victorious in 2019 and 2021, has five entries. Notably, Align The Stars recently finished second at Nottingham and is available at 12/1 with Sky Bet, though only 6/1 with William Hill & bet365. If he runs, expect his odds to align closer to the shorter prices. Another of interest is Knightswood, who, despite being frustrating is well-treated based on last August's Goodwood run behind Align The Stars. However, his present official rating means he may struggle to make the final lineup.
With a competitive field, it's shaping up to be an intriguing race. If you can get on the best odds available on Liam Swagger, Wild Waves and Align The Stars you’ll be sitting on a value ante post portfolio.
Good luck with your Thursday bets.
John