Newbury TV Races

Good morning all,

By the time you read this I'll be on the way down to Newbury for a couple of days work in the ring, so expect some tales next week!

There's four races on ITV4 today and I've had a look at those races on the main piece.

Serveontime gave us a bit of e/w money yesterday (was very well backed) and hoping to follow up with a winner or two. 

1.50 Newbury

A repeat of the race here earlier in the month, with La Bague Au Roi, Lostintranslation and Talkischeap all reopposing. It was a great race, with La Bague Au Roi and Lostintranslation jumping superbly on the front end and both came out of the race with a lot of credit. At this slightly shorter trip, you’d expect Lostintranslation might come out on top, especially if they again make plenty of use of him, but every horse has it’s price and at 5-1 I can’t resist a small bet on Spiritofthegames, equally impressive at Chepstow and that's no easy track for a novice to jump round. On hurdles for he’d have a bit to find but he already looks like making up into a better chaser, and this trip and his trainer nominated this race for him after that Chepstow win (needs to go left handed).

2.25 Newbury

A tricky handicap chase on paper. Yes, it could be turned into a rout by Willoughby Court if he is anything like the force of old but that’s not a given, and another absence since January is off-putting. Even with the probability of an easy lead, I can swerve him at 2-1.

Beggars Wishes surely has too much weight now, Aso comes from a yard still struggling, and Three Musketeers has never been a favourite of mine. King’s Odyssey really should have won more than he has and is turning into a nearly horse, and Ballybolley ran well below form at Rasen in a race where he had plenty going for him. Which rather leaves us with the game Touch Kick by default – he had to dig deep to win at Hereford having looked beat, and this galloping track ought to suit him better. I say ought to – I’m a little concerned that all his wins have come right handed, despite the fact he goes left at quite a few at his fences, but I’d be willing to take the chance.

3.00 Newbury

A quality contest. Sam Spinner may have company on the front end, with Monbeg Theatre another likely front runner. I can’t really get a handle on how good Sam Spinner is, either – he looked superb in heavy ground at Haydock and very good at Ascot but other runs made him look ordinary. Has 6lb to give away here and I’ll be looking elsewhere.

Wholestone is the other obvious one on paper and is very consistent. He probably had a hard enough race when successful at Aintree on his reappearance and he too has a penalty to carry, but he will get this run to suit (can sit in behind the leaders) and ought to have his chance.

Unowhatimeanharry, top class a couple of seasons ago, but there’s no doubting he was regressive throughout last season. However, he wasn’t far behind Wholestone at Aintree and was doing some good late work at the finish. Again though, that was a race he had won the year before and only goes to show he’s not the horse he was.

So is there any e/w value to be had in the race? Momella is a lovely, progressive mare but this trip will ask a new question of her. It’s her first start for Harry Fry, and it’s interesting enough that he starts her out over this trip (and with the addition of a tongue tie after a wind op) but 6-1 offers little value. I suppose if there is any value it might lie with The Mighty Don, who has jumping issues but came good at Cheltenham last time (gamely), stays this trip and won’t mind any rain that falls. Throw in the fact that Nick Gifford seems to have found the training manual in the drawer again (seven winners in the last two months, that's as many as he’d had in the previous year…) and he makes a bit of appeal. Needs to improve again to hit the frame, but that's not impossible.

3.35 Newbury

No prizes for guessing where I’m going with this one, it’s Bobo Mac that once again catches they eye. I put him up as a bet at the weekend on the back of his excellent second here earlier in the month and I think he’ll come on for that run too. Conditions look ideal once more and I’m really hopeful of a good run.

Today's selection – Bobo Mac 3.35 Newbury

Good luck with all your bets today,

David.

 

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