Hi all,
Inside today’s main piece I’m looking back at Guineas weekend at Newmarket with future winners in mind. There's also a preview of a couple of competitive races at Cork this evening.
Three days at Newmarket in May is a sure sign the Flat season has hit cruising altitude. And it doesn’t slowdown from here—over the next ten days, it’s all about Derby and Oaks trials.
Chester’s three-day May Meeting kicks off on Wednesday with the Chester Vase and Cheshire Oaks. On Friday, the spotlight stays at Chester for the prestigious Ladbrokes-sponsored Chester Cup.
More Classic contenders could emerge at Lingfield on Saturday, with its Derby and Oaks Trials. There’s still some uncertainty about whether the races will be run on turf or switched to the all-weather. Lingfield couldn’t water the turf in April, but round-the-clock irrigation began on May 1st. The final decision is expected Tuesday. Fingers crossed it’s on grass.
Then it’s onto York next week as the Dante Festival gets underway. I’m planning to attend a couple of days and looking forward to seeing the Musidora and Dante live.
Newmarket Notebook
Back to Newmarket and here are some thoughts from all three days of Guineas Weeken, with future winners in mind.
Friday
Alpine Trail maintained his unbeaten record in the Listed Newmarket Stakes (1m2f), making all under William Buick. He’s not in the Derby but could go to Lingfield’s trial. Appleby was measured post-race but hinted a big run at Lingfield might put Epsom on the table. He’s bred to stay further and does his best work on the track rather than at home—a promising sign.
Cosmic Year was another Listed winner, landing the King Charles II Stakes (7f) with authority. Still unbeaten, he showed a smart turn of foot despite possibly not handling the dip. A mile should suit him well, though the Jersey Stakes (7f) at Royal Ascot could be a likely next step. He has class and a serious engine.
Saturday
Rumstar isn’t far off the top 5f sprinters—he’s a key player for the King Charles III Stakes at Ascot after his Palace House success.
Ruling Court could head to the Derby, though I’m not fully sold on him staying 1m4f. Trainer is more convinced though and a Triple Crown bid has even been mentioned.
Field Of Gold looks a Group 1 winner in waiting.
Green Impact didn’t handle the Newmarket dip and wasn’t knocked about—he’ll be seen to better effect over 1m2f+ once the yard finds form.
Betfred Handicap (6f)
A strong renewal and form to be positive about.
More Thunder (1st) made it 2-2 over sprint trips—he’s on the Wokingham radar if he gets in, and possibly the Buckingham Palace too, if he doesn’t, as 7f will also suit him just as well.
Two Tribes (3rd) not the easiest to win with but can land a nice pot when it all falls right.
Lethal Levi (5th) handicapped to the hilt, worth trying at 7f again, especially if he can get an easy lead.
Indian Run (6th) shaped well again; he’ll be 3lb lower next time and is ready to win.
Saturday Eyecatchers
Born Ruler – Sir Mark Prescott
Shaped nicely on return from a long layoff in the Suffolk Stakes (5th of 13). He’ll improve for the run and be more at home back at 1m2f.
French Master – John & Thady Gosden
Runner-up in the 1m4f handicap. The slow pace didn’t help him, and he wasn’t given a hard time. Lightly raced, he could stay even further and is one to keep on side in the coming weeks.
Sunday
For a full look at the 1,000 Guineas and Pretty Polly Stakes, see Monday’s column—but here are some recap thoughts:
Falakeyah looks a Group 1 filly, though 1m2f might be her optimum for now. If she’s aimed at the Prix de Diane rather than Epsom, that could be a wise move.
Desert Flower pulled out plenty to win the 1,000 Guineas and could stay 1m4f better than her stablemate Ruling Court. A worthy Oaks favourite.
Lake Victoria will come on plenty for her sixth-place finish.
Elwateen still looked green but shaped very well. No Oaks entry yet but could be supplemented and her dam won over 1m 4f.
Chantilly Lace will win races this season, especially if she gets softer ground.
Red Letter should improve in the Irish 1,000 Guineas.
Sunday Eyecatcher
Blindedbythelights – Sir Mark Prescott
Short head second to Story Horse in the 1m6f handicap off a year’s absence. He’ll go up a couple of pounds but looks capable of landing a decent staying pot this year.
Tuesday Preview
Today’s best racing comes from Cork, where two feature contests stand out on this evening's card.
6:08 – Goffs Irish EBF Polonia Stakes (Listed, Fillies, 5½f)
Babouche, a Group 1 winner in last season’s Phoenix Stakes, sets the standard. She must give 5lb to her rivals but wasn’t seen to best effect on rain-softened ground when fourth in the Cheveley Park. Back in calmer waters, she’s the one to beat. Colin Keane is booked and her stablemate Revoke can’t be dismissed either, though Babouche looks the yard’s main hope.
Grande Marques was runner-up in the Group 3 Cornwallis Stakes (5f) at Newmarket last autumn. She stays 6f and represents a yard in form.
First Instinct shaped well when third in a Bath Listed event 16 days ago. Race-fit and consistent, she should go well again for a stable that travels well.
Maw Law, another UK challenger, didn’t stay 7f in the Fred Darling but had shown useful sprint form prior to that, finishing a short head in front of Grande Marques at Ayr. Back down in trip, she has solid each-way claims.
Verdict: Babouche is the form pick having won a Group 1 as a juvenile. If she's ready, she could just outclass these. Maw Law back down in trip. might be a bit underestimated by the market and has each way claims.
6:38 – Cork Derby (Premier Handicap, 1m4f)
Saturn returned with a strong win over 1m6f at Navan. Consistent and improving, he’s been out of the first three just once in nine career starts. He’s up 3lb but still progressing and should go well again.
Stablemate Satin is 1lb above her last winning mark but hasn’t shown much since. Needs a major revival and others make more appeal.
Dutch Gold shaped with promise on his return, doing best of the closers when fifth over 1m2f at Leopardstown. He’s back to his last winning mark and could feature if there’s some ease in the ground.
Dark Oak has useful flat handicap form and arrives fit from hurdling. With the yard among the winners, he’s not ruled out.
Westminster Moon carries top weight but had Group/Listed form in Germany. He needed his Irish debut 17 days ago, and the step back up to 1m4f is in his favour.
Ascending stayed 2m well when winning at Dundalk in November. The drop back in trip may test him, but he’s not without a chance.
Satono Chevalier is rated to run well on past all-weather form, though he’s yet to prove himself as good on turf. Returns from a break and hails from a yard that won this race in 2021.
Verdict: Saturn makes most appeal from a win perspective. Won well at Navan on return, is consistent, and looks like he still has more to give. Dutch Gold made an eyecatching return at Leopardstown and is well-handicapped. If ground eased, he’d be a big player. Westminster Moon – Group class when trained in Germany, should strip fitter after his recent stable debut. He’s a lively outsider despite top weight of 10-7.
I’ll be back tomorrow with a look ahead to Day One of Chester’s May Meeting.
Good luck with your Tuesday bets,
John
Hey J B.
So, Ruling Court went from being a Derby horse one day, to an unconvincing stayer, less than 48 hrs later?
Covering your bases there a bit?
I backed RC at 12’s for the Gns and FOG at 33’s. My thinking, was that the former might outstay the latter on testing ground and the latter might have too much pace on good of better ground.
We all know (and fair play to KS) that if FOG had gone at the same time as the winner, he probably would have won.
If they met again over that trip, FOG would be fav again, wouldn’t he?
City of Troy was by Justify, as is Ruling Court, but in addition RC has High Chapparal on the Dam’s side..how is that ‘not’ a likely middle distance pedigree?
I have him at 33’s for The Derby as well and Twain at 25’s, but rather than thinking that stamina might be an issue, I’d be more concerned about the horses ability to act at Epsom. Yes, he handled the dip at HQ well, but that is a long way from handling Epsom.
So, personally, I would have zero fears of Ruling Court being a posdible non stayer.
Hey J B.
So, Ruling Court went from being a Derby horse one day, to an unconvincing stayer, less than 48 hrs later?
Covering your bases there a bit?
I backed RC at 12’s for the Gns and FOG at 33’s. My thinking, was that the former might outstay the latter on testing ground and the latter might have too much pace on good of better ground.
We all know (and fair play to KS) that if FOG had gone at the same time as the winner, he probably would have won.
If they met again over that trip, FOG would be fav again, wouldn’t he?
City of Troy was by Justify, as is Ruling Court, but in addition RC has High Chapparal on the Dam’s side..how is that ‘not’ a likely middle distance pedigree?
I have him at 33’s for The Derby as well and Twain at 25’s, but rather than thinking that stamina might be an issue, I’d be more concerned about the horses ability to act at Epsom. Yes, he handled the dip at HQ well, but that is a long way from handling Epsom.
So, personally, I would have zero fears of Ruling Court being a possible non stayer.
Hi Rick,
Good to see your still around mate.
Not really covering all bases. I said connections see him as a Derby contender. I think he’ll improve for a step up to 1m 2f that’s for sure but I remain unsold on him seeing out a strongly run 1m 4f.
Actually I think he’ll handle Epsom fine. You’re right on pedigree he’s got every chance of staying and after the Trial’s unless something comes out and wins impressively he’ll be no bigger than 5/2 on the day so your on a good ante post bet.
Yes, Field Of Gold would beat Ruling Court if they ever raced again over mile and probably 1m 2f.