Oaks Day Preview

Hi all,

Epsom’s Classic meeting kicks off today with the Betfred Oaks (4.00) the highlight. The undercard includes the Group 1 Coronation Cup (2.40). ITV is showing the first five races live.

Plenty of rain had been forecast for Thursday and even more for Derby Day. But this is Britain—weather forecasts can deceive. I’ve convinced myself it’ll ride good to soft today, maybe soft by Saturday. If I’m wrong, it could be a rough couple of days for yours truly. Still, it’s a big day ahead.

Inside today's main is my preview of the Oaks Day races live on ITV.

Epsom

1:30 – Nyetimber Surrey Stakes (Listed, 7f)

Diego Ventura proved he’d trained on when winning a Group 3 at Longchamp 22 days ago. First-time cheekpieces worked, and any ease in the ground suits. His action suggests a flatter track might suit better, but he's got class.

Saqqara Sands returns for Ralph Beckett, who could have a big day ahead. The filly was progressive at two, goes on soft, and shouldn’t lack for fitness.

2:05 – Woodcote Stakes (Class 2, 6f)

Havana Hurricane impressed on debut at Goodwood. That form’s been boosted since with the second and third both winning. He’ll need to step up again, but the yard won this last year.

Maximized cost plenty at the breeze-ups and made a winning debut at Haydock. He beat a better-fancied stablemate and looks promising. Charlie Appleby knows how to win this race.

Norman’s Cay landed the Brocklesby at Doncaster. The form hasn’t stacked up, but visually he was the standout and can improve further.

2:40 – Coronation Cup (Group 1, 1m4f)

Calandagan sets the standard on last year’s form. He’s back at his best trip and handles cut. The hold-up style isn’t ideal at Epsom, but originally, I think he wins.

Jan Brueghel, the St Leger winner, has talent but can be tricky ride. He’ll need to be on best behaviour. Stablemate Continuous could act as pacemaker.

You Got To Me won the Irish Oaks and goes well fresh. This is her trip. She’ll need a personal best, but she’s likeable.

Giavellotto was caught out by a steady pace in the Sheema Classic last time.  He’s better than that run and has been targeted at this. If the ground stays on the quicker side, 8/1 looks fair. If the rain arrives, I wouldn’t be as interested as he needs a sound surface.

3:15 – Nifty 50 Handicap (Class 2, 1m2f)

Plenty hold chances in an opening looking handicap.

Rathgar is reliable and goes well at the track. Have Secret and Westerton, who comes from a yard with a fine handicap record at this meeting, are each-way possibles.

Defiance returns off a break. He was second in a C&D Listed race last spring and has been gelded since. Interesting on handicap debut for a stable that’s won this three times since 2018.

Akecheta shaped well when sixth in a hot Curragh handicap last time. Back up in trip and nicely treated on the best of her Irish form. A big player for a yard that does well with its raiders.

Botanical was below form on the all-weather last time but is better on turf. First-time cheekpieces and Ryan Moore booked. If he bounces back, he’s well treated. Any rain helps. Yard won this in 2023.

4:00 – Betfred Oaks (Group 1, 1m4f)

Desert Flower showed guts and class to win the 1,000 Guineas. She’s the one to beat on form. But there’s a stamina question, especially if the rain comes. If the ground eases, I’ll be against her.

Aidan O’Brien runs three: Minnie Hauk, Whirl, and Giselle.

Minnie Hauk made it 2-3 when winning Cheshire Oaks last month. She stays, handles soft ground, and Moore rides. An uncomplicated ride who will handle the track and has a solid chance.

Whirl was the most visually impressive Oaks Trial’s winner. She cruised home in the Musidora and clocked a smart time. I liked her most going into the race, but Moore’s switch to Minnie Hauk is a concern. Still, Whirl might be the value.

Giselle was keen early but still won the Lingfield Oaks Trial. She’s got talent and should progress with racing. I think she’ll prove to be a better prospect than Minnie Hauk but on rain softened ground might not be.

Elwateen was fourth in the 1,000 Guineas, a fine run on just her second start. Not guaranteed to stay 1m 4f but her pedigree gives hope she will, and she has untapped potential. A filly with a big day ahead if she sees out the trip.

Oaks Day Summary

The Oaks looks open if the ground eases. I don’t think Desert Flower will stay if the ground eases. Whirl appeals most despite Moore’s choice. Elwateen remains the dark horse if she sees out the new trip.

Calandagan sets the standard in the Coronation Cup, but Giavellotto is no back number but needs the rain to stay away.

Let’s hope we’ve read the going right—either way, it’s a big day ahead at Epsom.

Good luck with your Oaks Day bets.

John