You have to take this Paddy Power offer!
Paddy Power have an excellent money back offer on the Arkle Chase, which runs at Cheltenham on Tuesday.
They've pretty much made this a must bet event.
The offer basically is that any win bet you make in the Arkle Chase will be refunded if the favourite, Sprinter Sacre, wins.
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I'll look at the terms of the offer and suggest a bet. But first let's just think about why they are making this offer.
I always think that if I know why someone is giving me something then I can better understand whether the deal is right for me.
The Arkle Chase is the second race of the Cheltenham Festival.
A festival that will see millions of pounds bet on it.
The bookmaker business model is a return on turnover model. They structure bets in such a way that they make a little bit of profit on every pound wagered.
So to make more money they need more turnover.
So if Paddy Power make an irresistible offer at the beginning of the festival then lots of punters will have their cash sitting in a Paddy Power account.
So when they want to bet on the next race, who will they go with? Paddy Power.
So that's the why, what are the rules of this game?
The maximum refund is £100 per customer.
Applies to bets placed on the Arkle Chase from 8am 28th February.
Applies to win (and win part of each way) single bets only placed before the start of the race.
The customer's selection must run in the Arkle Chase for the refund to apply. (This race is a money back if your horse doesn't run race, so you get your money back anyway if it doesn't run)
Does not apply to extra markets.
Does not apply to Tote bets.
What shall we bet.
To determine my bet I turned to Mark Foley's Cheltenham Trends Guide in the members area at the Betting School Insiders Club.
Interestingly it turns out that only 2 favourites have won this race in the last 20 years.
On top of that Mark says…
The 6 yos have always struggled in this race without the benefit of an allowance.
They are usually not as strong, or as experienced as the 7 or 8 year old runners; Azertyiuop
was the last 6 yo winner in 2003 and was also the last favourite to win;
Sprinter Sacre is a 6 year old as is Cue Card.
My main bet is on second favourite Al Ferof with savers on Cue Card and Menorah.
It looks like this…
Al Ferof £75 at 9/4
Cue Card £15 at 6/1
Menorah £10 at 9/1
If the Sprinter Sacre wins I get my £100 back and break even.
If Al Ferof wins I win £143.75
If Cue Card wins I win £5
If Menrah wins I break even.
If anything else wins I lose £100.
Paddy Power also offer a £50 free bet for new accounts! To open a new account Click Here
There is no selection from Betting Insiders today 🙁