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Pertemps Network Handicap Hurdle

Josh gave us a 12/1 winner last week with his Saturday trends race.

This week he's looking to follow up with a bet on tomorrows 3:15 at Haydock.

The trends are outlined below and tomorrow we'll post up the finalised bet.

Josh is a regular contributor to the Betting School Insiders Club (http://bettinginsiders.com) and runs the Racing to Profit blog (http://racingtoprofit.co.uk)

Sat – 3.15 Haydock


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11 renewals

169 runners, 38 placed horses

TRENDS

Previous Place

  • Nothing much of note

o   PU: 0/13, 0 places

o   Fell: 0/6, 0 places

Horse Age

  • 11/11 Aged 6-10

o   5yo: 0/16, 1 place

o   11+ : 0/18, 4 places

Days Since Run

  • Not too much of note
  • 8/11 ran 1-60 days ago

o   61-90 days: 0/18, 1 place

o   91-121 days: 2/7, 2 places

o   121-365: 0/9, 0 places

Horse Weight

  • 11-12: 0/8, 1 place

Horse Official Rating

  • OR 119< : 0/17, 5 places
  • 138+ : 1/27, 5 places…9% winners…16% runners…13% places

Season Runs

  • 6+ : 0/32, 8 places

Maximum Distance Winners Had RUN Over

  • 26.5F or further: 0/40, 7 places

Odds

  • 9/11 priced 12/1 or shorter SP

o   9/78, 23 places…82% winners…46% runners…61% places

o   14/1+ : 2/91, 15 places (includes two ‘biggies’)

***

OTHER STATS

Miscellaneous 1

Origin of Horse

  • GB: 2/51, 12 places
  • IRE: 6/73, 16 places
  • USA: 0/4, 0 places
  • FR: 2/37, 9 places
  • GER: 1/4, 1 place

Weight (excl J-Claim)

  • 11-12: 0/11, 2 places

Pos Wgts (ex Clm) –

  • Clear Second/Joint Second: 4/16 runners, 8 places…+68 points…

‘The ‘Running’ Characteristics’

H (Horse) -Run (90 days)

  • 4+ : 0/21, 9 places

H – Run (career)

  • 21+ : 1/63, 11 places…9% winners…37% runners…29% places
  • 28+ : 0/41, 7 places

H- Run (Hncp/Non Hncp)

  • 10+ : 1/43, 8 places…9% winners…25% runners…21% places

H-Run (NH Race Type)

  • 1-3 hurdle runs: 0/19, 5 places

H- RUN (Hncp NH Race Type)

  • 10+ : 1/43, 8 places

H-Run (Last Win)

  • 11/11 had won at least once in previous 6 starts

o   0/37, 7 places had not

H-Run (Last Placing)

  • 11/11 had placed at least once on previous 4 starts

o   0/23, 4 places had not

The ‘Winning’ Characteristics

H-Win (Hncp/Non)

  • 5+ handicap wins: 0/18, 3 places

H-Win (Hcap NH)

  • 9/11 had 0-1 handicap hurdle win

o   9/104, 26 places…81% winners..62% runners..68% places

H-Win (Class)

  • 2+ : 0/18, 2 places

Miscellaneous 2

Best In Three Runs

  • 10/11 had finished 1st or 2nd on at least one of last 3 starts

o   1/47, 12 places did not…9% winners…28% winners…32% places

Best In Five Runs

  • 11/11 finished 1st or 2nd on at least one of last 5 starts

o   0/27, 6 places did not

Class Move

  • Dropping 3 or more classes: 0/9, 0 places

Distance Move

  • Up 4.5f or further: 0/21, 0 places

Highest Class Win

  • G1: 0/7, 3 places
  • G2: 1/9, 4 places
  • Listed/G3: 0/11, 1 place

Horses ‘Last Race’ Characteristics

(LR)-last run – NH Race Type

  • Chase LTO: 1/40, 7 places

(LR) Hcap/Non

  • Non handicap: 0/30, 5 places

(LR) Track

  • Newbury: 2/6, 5 places
  • Hunt: 2/5, 2 places
  • Chelt: 2/19, 4 places
  • 1 win each: Ayr/Hayd/Sand/Leop/Winc
  • Wetherby: 0/14, 2 places
  • Warw: 0/12, 4 places

Trainers (of interest)

  • D Pipe: 2/8, 5 places
  • Jonjo O’Neill: 2/18, 2 places
  • 1 win each: C Tizzard/Ian Williams/F Doumen/M Keighley/NTD/L Lungo
  • Mrs S J Smith: 0/8, 0 places
  • Miss V Williams: 0/7, 2 places
  • D McCain: 0/7, 1 place
  • A King: 0/4, 2 places
  • P Nicholls: 0/4, 0 places

THE WINNING PROFILE?

  • Not PU or Fell LTO
  • Aged 6-10
  • Not Top Weights (struggled to date)
  • Yet to run over 26.5f or further in career
  • 27 or fewer career runs
  • NOT up in trip by 4.5f or more from last run
  • Ran in a handicap LTO
  • 5 or fewer runs this season
  • Won at least once in last 6 starts
  • 1st or 2nd on at least once of previous 5 starts

***

On Course Profits free Horse Racing magazine

There are still 31 runners down to line up and given I don’t really bet AP, I will save any shortlisting and tipping until Friday afternoon/Saturday morning. Hopefully I can follow up on last week’s winning tip, the first over 10/1 for my articles on this blog. Hopefully it won’t be the last!

Today's Selection

19:20 Wolverhampton Grecian King – win bet 7/2 Bet Victor

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