Below we have Josh' final selection for the 3:15 at Haydock.
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Isaacstown Lad ticks most of the profile mentioned on my previous post – bar the fact he has had 6 runs this season. But, that stat is tentative given that of the 32 to have run with such a profile, 8 have placed. Not the strongest of foundations on which to reject a horse at double figure odds.
Ignorning the weight trend for now (poor record of Top Weights) Using that ‘winning profile' left a working shortlist of 4. The two topweights – Top Billing/The Boss's Dream, the selection and Pipes horse, Taj Badalandabad.
Top Weights have struggled from the few to have tried to date and in this really testing ground I dont really want to be with them. They are also a shorter price as I write. The fact that the two top weights have yet to win above C3 level, may say something as to the strength of this C2.
The Pipe horse is half the price of the selection, but he is 2/8, 5 places in this race so clearly his runners should be treated with extreme caution. Its a bit of a guess as to how he will handle this ground, but he looks progressive.
The Selection…well he is a CD winner two starts ago and his last race was a decent one, with the pace setter and the one that set off after him not really coming back to him. He finished a bit tired there over 3f or so further. In testing ground this drop in trip looks likely to suit. He is 9 but this is only his 13th Hurdle start and he could still be open to some progress. He won his penultimate start quite well and could be up to this mark. His trainer, Nicky Richards is also in form, 4/16, 8 places in last 30 days, 2/9, 5 places the last 14 days. We know the horse handles the track, trip and ground. All positives. His stablemate should ensure there is a decent pace. At the odds, and his trends/stats profile, he is the one for me.
The top two in the market have some historical stats to overcome – namely being 5yos (0/16,1 place) and the Elliot horse ran in a non-handicap LTO, they are currently 0/30 odd.
Anyway, clearly based on form you could make a case for a few – most in here are unexposed. But, at the odds I am happy with the selection and hope he gives us a decent run for our money.
3:15 Haydock Isaacstown Lad – win bet 12/1 Bet Victor