Back in December we wrote about the each way price gapper strategy
Since then we've had a few mails asking for more on this and it's been on my to do list for a while.
Today I get to cross that off, by explaining why price gapper is a profitable strategy.
So a little Monday morning maths.
First off we need a race where only a few runners (like 1, 2 or 3) have a real chance of winning.
Mostly a price gapper opportunity is highlighted by an odds on favourite. But it doesnt have to be that way, if we only have 2 or 3 runners priced under 10/1 then we are onto something.
Let's make up an example and see where we get to.
Let's say we have an 8 runner race with odds of 1/2, 9/2, 9/2, 25/1 bar.
This being an 8 runner race then the each way terms are 1/5 the odds for the 1st 3 places.
With 5 of the runners priced at 25/1 or higher, it is unlikely (but not impossible) that the winner will come from one of those 5.
The likely outcome is that the favourite will win and that the 2 9/2 chances will fill the places.
If we back one of the 9/2 chances each way we are making 2 bets a win bet at 9/2 which has a true odds of about 11/2 (allowing for bookies overround)
And a place bet at 9/10 or 1.9. The true odds of this are probably 3/10 (1.3) or shorter.
An easy way to see if you are onto something with a potential price gapper is to check the Betfair place odds, which are considered to be efficient IE represent close to the true chance.
If they are much shorter than what you are getting on the place part of your bet then you are onto some value.
The standard way of demonstrating value is to see what would happen over 100 bets.
So if we take it that our 9/2 shot has true win odds of 11/2 and true place odds of 1.3.
Then over 100 bets it should win 15 times and place 77 times.
So if we stake £10 each way on each run then we will…
Stake 100 x £20 = £2,000
Have win returns = 15 x £55 = £825
Have place returns = 77 x £19 = £1,463
A total return of £2,288 for a £2,000 outlay which is a 14% return on investment.
Hopefully that makes sense? (Tell me in the comments)
Finally just a reminder that your potential price gapper doesn't have to be on an 8 runner race with an odds on favourite.
Basically you are looking for a race with the same number of real contenders as the number of places paid on an each way bet.
It can also be in 5 or 6 runner races with 2 contenders.
No Selection Today
Only Wolverhampton runs today