I'm a bit behind with my reading at the moment, but I've just started reading the March edition of SmartSigger.
The first thing that has caught my eye this month is an article about not following Racing Post selections and how you will lose money of you do!
Here are some key facts from the article that might make you think twice before backing a Racing Post tip…
The Racing Post’s has, on average, 46,871 people buying the paper everyday and averages 1.2 million unique users to their website every month. This equates to around 42,857 people per day.
Around 30% will be cross over according to the their advertising information. This means that nearly 76,000 unique people are reading the paper and, according to further figures, 31% of them bet everyday.
The average income per household is in excess of £50,000 per annum. On that basis
we will assume that those that bet everyday can afford at least a £10 bet per horse.That is £235,600 being bet into a market, more often than not on the same horse.
The thing is about the Racing Post selections is that the bookies know what they are before you do.
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They also know that these will be the horses that take the most money and so they can shorten their prices on these horses, to make sure that they are not giving value on the most popular horses.
But what this does mean is that if you go against the Racing Post you are almost certainly getting better value in your bets.
This is why services like Value Backing and Value Seeker are profitable, because they will not bet on the Racing Post selections, because there is no value.
Here's some facts about Pricewise from SmartSigger…
From a sample of 330 bets taken from last year, his (Pricewise) strike rate was 12.4% and to advised prices was 11 points in profit.
However, to SP he showed a 50 point loss. That’s a hell of a difference and serves to illustrate how once in the media’s grasp we should be avoiding these horses like the plague.
Clever punters will let the crowd pile in on the Pricewise horse and then invest in an alternative or lay the Pricewise horse just before the off 🙂
You can read the full SmartSigger article in this months issue here.
Today's Selection
Southwell 3.25 Doldrums – win bet 5/2 Paddy Power, Bet Victor
Is this not the most straightforward back and lay proposition before the off then no risk involved?
Sure is!
If you can get money on Pricewise selections at the advised prices you will make money, your 11pts profit is way out.
There were in fact 380 Pricewise selections and to Betfair sp made over 47pts LSP.
I followed him last year managing to attain advised prices and made over 120pts LSP.
The problem you will have is getting money on with the bookies at the advised prices which are pushed out during the morning of the races.