Goran Trpevski is a former professional footballer who has his own well established tipping service. It is again in profit this season and today he gives some advice on other factors you may need to consider

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Here's Goran's final article…

Have it in mind that soon we will reach a point where the weather will play some part in the games, a big part in some cases, especially if you bet in the lower leagues around Europe.

Bad weather equals a bad pitch which in turn means chances are harder to create and this means fewer shots on goal and finally fewer goals.

I always follow the Balkan leagues, as I am based here, and I don’t mind driving to any game as long as I have the time and if there are no bigger European games on that day. I saw a game a few weeks back where the under 2.5 goals price was 2.10. When I saw that pitch I thought three goals here is impossible. No way in a million years.

What I am really saying is be aware of the weather.

A normal over game might easily go under as the conditions may be very bad. The rain soaked Parma v Roma game earlier this season had 5 goals in it as Roma are clueless at defending but normally a combination of that rain and that pitch would have killed the chances to score.

Another example this season was Freiburg v Dortmund where they had heavy heavy snow and we saw it was an easy unders game.

Keep your eyes open on the weather and what the weather might do to the pitches. Most teams don’t have a Wembley, Camp Nou or Bernabeu to play on.

Also know that some teams react differently to bad weather and bad pitches. Many teams will prefer a bad pitch whilst the Barcas and Arsenals of this world really need the good conditions.

Levante v Real Madrid a few weeks back was another game that became a lottery.

The big result of the past few weeks was Celtic v Barcelona. The question is does it signal the end of an era?

Is this the end of an era for this Barcelona side, a side I have said is the best side ever to play this game without any doubt.

It is possible; in fact it’s more than possible.

It’s not only a football factor, it’s a human factor that will kick in is my take on it. Once a football player is distracted in any way he is in trouble.

Distracted in any way!

Some examples of when that happens, just a few of many.

-Titles: Barca have won how much lately? This is a big big issue as you can lose that extra motivation when there is nothing else to win.

-Money: In this case it might be a bad example but this is a situation you can have with young kids (I had it).

– Women: A very dangerous snake in football players. Love is great but it can change players. Pique has not been the same player since Shakira came into his life. He plays very poorly and seems distracted.

Messi just became a father and who knows what this may bring.

Speculation/Reaching? In my opinion not at all. I just see things way ahead of rest of the people. The young players coming through at Barcelona such as Tello and Cuenca etc. have 1% of the talent that Iniesta and Xavi have.

The hunger is a BIG BIG issue here as we saw against Celtic over the 180 minutes.

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