by Dave French

August 17, 2012

We have a guest post and freebie from Ben Aitken today, but before we get into that I just want to mention the Colin Leafe racing service that gave our tip yesterday for the first time.

I have heard good things about this service and was very pleased when they agreed to provide occasional tips for us. Yesterday they gave us a 3/1 winner and their members had one other selection that won at 4/1. Read more about Colin Leafe here.
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Course Connoisseurs, Track Experts or Specialists, Horses for Courses… whatever you may personally call these types of animals they are well worth locating, studying and getting to know their traits inside and out and adding them as an extra string to your punting bow.

I personally have a comprehensive and detailed list compromising of a wide assortment of horses and their specific inclinations – horse profiling if you will. Amongst this list there is a rich sprinkling of ‘Course Connoisseurs’, 1 of which I want to share with you here today.

The Course Connoisseur that I want to share with you today comes from the National Hunt ranks. There has been a small break in the jumping game recently as the jockeys put their feet up, much deserved feet up may I add, on their summer vacation but as National Hunt is my area of expertise I wanted to go down this route for today’s post.

The horse in question is the Keith Goldsworthy trained COCK OF THE ROCK.

Why does my radar start going off on one when COCK OF THE ROCK makes an appearance at Worcester? Simple, he is a Worcester Connoisseur!

Take a look at the 7yo’s form figures over the galloping plains of Worcester racetrack –
Worcester form figures – 1-2-1-3-2-1

A 50% WIN strike-rate and a 100% win & place strike-rate! Figures that tell me this is track he simply worships. Indeed if we had backed him every time he had set hoof on the Worcester turf we would currently have been +£15.29 better off at Betfair SP; not too shabby.

A quick squint at the RPR figures he has achieved in his 12 career starts also shows that he is yet to get within 6lbs of his Worcester form at any other track; at some tracks he has run at least 20lbs worse than his peak Worcester form.

Now let’s take a look at his form figures away from his cherished Worcester –

Form figures away from Worcester – 2-2-4-4-2-3

To be honest they are not a terrible set of form figures but they lack the pizzazz of his Worcester form line that’s for sure.

Clearly you need to take other factors into account when analysing the chances of any horse in a specific race but if you know the horse has a particular liking for a specific track, like COCK OF THE ROCK at Worcester, then you are already in the process of building up a profile on the horse and putting yourself in a strong position to stay ahead of the crowd.

I also store specific horse notes on the database I use (Proform Professional) and have the software alert me as to when COCK OF THE ROCK is running at his favourite track. My in-depth research means I know at a glance when he is faced with his preferred conditions and when it is best for me to get my money down on him.

In summary then we know that COCK OF THE ROCK…

– Has strong Worcester form and all career victories have come at the track (1-2-1-3-2-1)
– Has weaker form elsewhere (2-2-4-4-2-3)

and by looking at his CV a bit closer we also know that…

– Champion jockey A P McCoy has an excellent record on the horse (1-1-2-2-1)
– Other jockeys struggle to get him home in front (2-3-2-4-4-2-3)

The horse currently sits on a career high mark of 113 but there is every reason to believe he can defy that figure as we are yet to see him pitched into a handicap hurdle contest. If connections can find him a handicap at Worcester I would be keen to get my money on the fella (price dependant of course).

There is also the possibility that Keith Goldsworthy sends him back down the chasing route. They did try him in a Handicap Chase for his chasing debut at the back end of last season although the 7yo failed to shine that day.

The important thing to note about that debut run, however, was that it was not run at Worcester and A P McCoy was not on-board. There should be Novice Chasing (or indeed handicap) options for him at Worcester and I wouldn’t write him off after just one chasing effort; he is better than that if getting his conditions.

On my website – www.narrowing-the-field.co.uk – I’m currently giving away a FREE ‘Course Connoisseurs’ guide when you sign up to my FREE NTF service.

Simply pop your details in the sign-up box on this page – http://www.narrowing-the-field.co.uk – and you will be sent a link that allows you to download the FREE NTF Course Connoisseurs guide.

There are also numerous other FREE NTF guides you can download at the same time including my ‘Introduction to the Dosage Method’ guide.

Happy Punting
Ben Aitken (NTF)

Owner and creator of www.narrowing-the-field.co.uk and author of ‘Narrowing The Field – Using the Dosage Method to Win at National Hunt Racing’.

Today's selection courtesy of Trainer Trends

2.10 Nottingham Hoarding Win bet

Disclaimer: All views and opinions expressed in this article are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the official policy or position of TGH Trading Ltd or it's employees.

About the author 

Dave French

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