by Dave French

April 26, 2012

Today I want to tell you about a nifty staking method that is great for betting in the morning with best odds guaranteed bookies like Bet365.

One of the many strands to my betting is the Beaumonts Bets service and it is Paul Beaumont that I have to credit with creating what has proved to be a profitable staking method for me.

So the basic method is that we place a bet in the morning at Best Odds Guaranteed. We then place a lay bet at Betfair SP fo 75% of our potential winnings. So our stake is just £2.50 because we are laying back 75% of the bet.

Ok so that might not sound too amazing, we have just reduced our stake by 75%, but lets look at a hypothetical example to see what happens in different scenarios.

Let's say we have bet £10 at 10/1 with a BOG bookmaker. And we have set up a Betfair SP lay with a liability of £75 (75% of our potential profit of £100).

Scenario 1. The horse starts at 10/1 and loses.

We lose £10 at the bookmakers and assuming it starts with a BSP of say 12.5 we win £6.53 at Betfair (I have ignored commission for the examples)

So the horse loses and we lose £3.48.

Scenario 2. The horse is backed in to 7/1 and loses, BSP of 8.4.

We lose £10 at the bookies and win £10.13 at Betfair.

So the horse loses and we win £0.13. So we made a small profit on a losing bet because we found one that steamed in.

Scenario 3. The horse starts at 7/1 and wins, BSP of 8.4.

We win £100 at the bookies at our BOG and we lose £75 at Betfair overall profit of £25.

Scenario 4. The horse drifts to 16/1 and wins, BSP of 20.0.

We win £160 at the bookies and lose £75 at Betfair, overall profit £85.

So we are working with a virtual stake and are increasing our profit if we get a price movement.

In scenario 1 where the price is steady and our horse loses we have lost more than our virtual stake.

But if we find one that is heavily bet and loses we make a small profit and are rewarded for finding a steamer.

If we find a steamer that wins (scenario 3) we have still won 10 times our virtual stake.

And if our horse drifts and wins then we benefit hugely from the drifted price.

I hope that makes sense, but for more examples and further explanation check out Paul's website.

(and if you have a couple of hours to spare each morning then join him for regular profits)

Today's Selection

Wolverhampton 3.20 Country Road – win bet

Disclaimer: All views and opinions expressed in this article are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the official policy or position of TGH Trading Ltd or it's employees.

About the author 

Dave French

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  1. Thanks for reminding me.
    I had taken a look at paul’s service awhile ago. I came to the conclusion that I could not afford it, since I have a note that says it requires a 400 point bank and I don’t recall it being a cheap service.

    You seem to give examples ao all cases except for the NR % reductions at Betfair and Rule 4 at the Bookies. Can these affect the situation much?
    Tis is of course something which is happening a lot recently.

    Thanks,
    Ian

  2. What about scenario 5- if it drifts badly and loses? Surely you would have a bigger losing scenario there like in your last example-BSP of 20.0 results in a loss of £6.05.
    Or are the winners outweighing the losers?

  3. @Paul,
    Yes, when it drifts badly and loses, you win a much smaller amount on the Betfair lay side – so that the loss is bigger than just 25% of the initial win bet stake.

    To make the strategy work, you need to find more big steamers that win, than big drifters that lose.

    Ian

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