Progressive Podemos Looks The Part

Quick Ground Leads To Wetherby Non-Runners

I bet Wetherby Clerk of The Course Jonjo Sanderson wished the rain that hit Churchill Downs prior to the Breeders Cup had arrived at Wetherby.

Sadly, it’s been very dry in West Yorkshire and despite plenty of watering on the A1 course prior to the Charlie Hall Meeting. The going was good, good to firm in places on Saturday. That sort of going description was always likely to provide plenty of non-runners over the two days.

Inside I have some key trends for Saturday’s key trends for the Badger Ales Trophy at Wincanton. A future winner from Ascot for your trackers and Monday’s tip….

Red Lands Charlie Hall

Defections by the likes Bristol De Mai and Thistlecrack meant that just four went to the post for the historic Charlie Hall Chase. Despite the small number of runners, the race provided plenty of drama.

Firstly, the second favourite the Tom George trained Double Shuffle came down at the first fence. Then just two obstacles later the well backed favourite Black Corton made a bad mistake at the ditch almost unseating jockey Bryony Frost who made a miraculous recovery to maintain the partnership. Somehow, she managed to grab hold of the reins and even jumped the next fence with one foot out of the irons. If you have seen it, you’ll know exactly what I mean. It was an incredible piece of horsemanship. Black Corton made another mistake at the 7th and never managed to regain the lead from Definitely Red after that. The 8-year-old was still very much in contention coming to the last but he never really looked like he would catch the eventual winner.

The winner was given a suitably aggressive ride by jockey Danny Cook Definitely Red jumped better than his two other rivals. Unproven on going as quick as he faced on Saturday. The 9-year-old handled it really well. The gelding is now 13 wins from 26 runs 19 placed. A small field clearly suit him, as his form figures in a single digit field are now 11121122131311U1.

On the subject of the dry ground the Haldon Gold Cup is due to be run at Exeter on Tuesday. There is some rain in the forecast but the going description at the time of writing is good to firm. So, it’s looking likely there will be a small field for the race.

Notebook Horse:

Larry, trained by Gary Moore, came into the race looking for the hat-trick after win over hurdles at Fontwell & Plumpton in the spring. This was the 5-year-old’s first start over fences and he ran well for a long way. Given this was his first start since April it was a pleasing return to action.

Had no chance with the easy winner but would probably have finished if he hadn’t had made a mistake at the last. His best form over hurdles came on soft or heavy so in the circumstance he did well on this much quicker surface.

There are handicap chases to be won with this Midnight Legend gelding.

Badger Ales Handicap Chase & November Handicap

On Saturday Wincanton host’s one of its biggest racing days of the season. The highlight of the card is the Badger Ales Trophy Handicap Chase. Like Exeter and other parts of the South West the track hasn’t seem much rain in recent months. The going description is firm, good to firm in places so they really need a good downpour between now and Saturday to ease the ground.

Also, on Saturday it’s the final day of the flat turf season at Doncaster. The highlight of the Town Moor card is the November Handicap. When I first started getting involved in horse race betting this was one of the betting races of the autumn with a lively ante-post market. How times have changed and although most bookies have priced up the race. The race just doesn’t have any of the old excitement that it used to.

Badger Ales Trophy Trends

Looking at some of the key 10-year trends for the Badger Ales Trophy. Horses with the following traits:

Odds SP: 14/1 & under
Handicap Chase Wins: 1 to 3
Days Since Last Run: 11 to 30 days

Have produced the following set of results – 8 winners from 28 runners + 48% 11 placed or 80% of the winners from 21% of the total runners.

Monday Selection:

Plumpton and Hereford provide the jumps action this afternoon and Kempton continues with an all-weather twilight card. Today’s selection come from Kempton and the listed race at 6:00. Last weeks Monday selection finished second. Here's hoping we can go one better this week.

Kempton

6:00 – It could worth siding with the improving Podemos in this 1m 4f listed race. Granted the 3-year-old has plenty to find on official ratings. But he’s in form. having won his last two starts here over a furlong shorter. Taking his Kempton form figures to 211. Looks to have solid each way claims for trainer Ralph Beckett whose 8 winners from 29 runners 28% in the past 14 days.

Podemos – 8/1 – each way

Until next week

If you would like to get all of John's horses to follow and his weekend bets each Thursday in a detailed pdf you can join him here for just £12.99 – https://www.oncourseprofits.com/victor-value-ante-post-eyecatchers/

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