Good morning all,

A tricky track, tricky races and more tricky weather and you have the makings for a punter's nightmare.

The weather was better at Goodwood on Wednesday. At this time of year, the ground can dry out quickly. In the short term that’s not necessary a good thing. The going can get “gluey & holding” and not all horses act on such a surface. Forecasts for the rest of the week are sending out mixed messages. Some continue to predict a mixture of sunshine and scattered showers. The worst type of forecast for us punters is “scattered” showers. Meanwhile others talk of light rain late Thursday evening through to Friday morning.  

It was a clean sweep for the classic generation in the yesterday’s Sussex Stakes. With Alcohol Free just getting the better of Poetic Flare inside the final furlough. The winner is a tough filly. Who was the best horse on the day and became the first of her sex to win the race since Soviet Song in 2004.

Back to Thursday’s action. It’s day three of the Goodwood Festival and there’s more racing at the Galway Festival.  The feature races of a seven-race card are the Group 1 Qatar Nassau Stakes (3:35) and the Group 2 Unibet Richmond Stakes (2:25).

Over at Galway. It’s more National Hunt action. The highlight of an eight-race card is Guinness Galway Hurdle Handicap (6:15) with €147,500 on offer to the winner.

Inside the main piece, I have taken a look at the first four races at Goodwood.

Qatar Goodwood Festival – Day 2

1:50 – Unibet “15 To Go” Kincsem Handicap (Class 2) – 1m 2f

Aerion Power looked set to win at Doncaster but his jockey misjudged the winning post and had to settle for second. He’s clearly going the right way and is sure to be popular with punters but his best form has so far come on good to firm.

Ralph Beckett saddled a double here on Tuesday and so his Patient Dream must be respected. A winner at Epsom in April. The colt resumed winning ways on soft ground at Windsor last month. He’s been raised 3lb but Ray Dawson has been booked to take off 3lb so that negates the weight rise.

Mr Excellency comes into the race in great form having won his last two at Newmarket & Chepstow. Up 2lb for the last of those wins and but will face competition for the lead here.  Trainer Mark Johnston has saddled the winner of this race three times since 2013.

Johnston also saddles King Frankel who looked on a decent handicap mark when runner-up in the London Gold Cup and then occupying the same position in 1m 2f Class 2 handicap at Epsom on Derby Day. Ran just as well when a 3 ¾ length 4^th of 14 at Royal Ascot. You can draw a line through his run at Newmarket when he played up in the stalls before finishing last.

2:25 – Unibet Richmond Stakes (Group 2) – 6f

Asymmetric improved again to run Lusail to head in the Group 2 July Stakes at Newmarket last time. That’s the best form on offer and the son of Showcasing won over C&D on his racecourse debut. The easier surface will likely also suit the colt.

Ebro River was 1 ½ lengths behind Asymmetric at Newmarket. His best form came when winning the Listed National Stakes on soft ground at Sandown. Others have more scope for improvement but he’s 2-2 on soft and the Hugo Palmer yard is in good form.

Perfect Power beat Go Bears Go in the Group 2 Norfolk Stakes at Royal Ascot last time. Both his career wins have come on good to firm so an easier surface is an unknown. The step up to 6f should suit and if he handles the ground sure to be in the mix.

Clive Cox has won the last two renewals of the race. He saddles Caturra who won the Listed Rose Bowl Stakes at Newbury 13-days ago.  Highly regarded by the trainer. He's a definite contender but not sure he wants really soft ground.

3:00 – John Pearce Racing Gordon Stakes (Group 3) – 1m 4f

Wordsworth came from out of the pack to run Hurricane Lane to six lengths in the Group 1 Grand Prix de Paris at Longchamp. Prior to that he had been running well finishing third in the Irish Derby and runner-up in the Queen’s Vase at Royal Ascot.

Stablemate Sir Lucan beat Wordsworth a neck in a Listed race at Navan when last seen in action 75-days ago.  His Navan success came over 1m 5f and he looked a St Leger type that day. Surely capable of the improvement needed to go close here and Frankie Dettori has been booked for the ride.

Third Realm beat Adayar in the Lingfield Derby Trial in May but was 11 ½ lengths behind that one in the Epsom Derby. He’s better than he was able to show at Epsom and the soft ground suited him at Lingfield.

Youth Spirit impressed when winning the Chester Vase on soft ground in May. Before fading tamely into 8th in the Epsom Derby. Not raced since so maybe something was amiss and better run could be forthcoming here.

Ottoman Emperor comes into the race having won his last three starts. Steps up to 1m 4f for the first time and on the evidence of his previous runs he seems likely to improve for the new trip. First start on going worse than good but on pedigree should be fine on an easy surface. Need to improve to win but he could well be capable of it.

Just the six fillies and mares are set to go to post for today’s feature race. However, you can make a case for four of them.

3:35 – Qatar Nassau Stakes (Group 1) – 1m 2f

Audarya was in great from in the second half of last season a Group 1 at Deauville last August. Before running Tarnawa to length in the Group 1 Prix de l'Opera at Longchamp and ending the season with a win in the Breeders' Cup Filly & Mare Turf at Keeneland. Looked as good as ever when running Love to ¾ length in the Prince Of Wales's Stakes at Royal Ascot on her seasonal return. The one to beat, if at her best

Lady Bowthorpe has returned to action in great form, winning a Group 2 at Newmarket on her seasonal reappearance. Before running Palace Pier to 1 ½ lengths in the Group 1 Lockinge Stakes at Newbury. An unlucky, 1 length 4^th of 13 in the Group 1 Falmouth Stakes last time. Has the ability to win a Group 1 against her own sex and will be suited by the likely easier ground. First start over 1m 2f but on pedigree she should stay.

The Aidan O’Brien pair look the pick of the classic generation. Joan Of Arc improved to run Empress Josephine to a short head in a heavy ground Irish 1,000 Guineas. She maintained that improvement when going onto win the Prix de Diane (French Oaks) last time. Needs to progress again but she’s going the right way. Empress Josephine ran well below her Irish 1,000 Guineas form when only 8^th of 11 in the Coronation Stakes at Royal Ascot. Better than that form and at the Curragh she shaped like a step up to 1m 2f would bring out further improvement.

Verdict: Looking at the pace map, there isn’t any. This should play into the hands of the O’Brien pair rather than the likely held up Lady Bowthorpe.

Thursday Selection:

Snow Lantern didn’t get the race run to suit in the Sussex Stakes and had to settle for third. However, there was a winning selection. With Magical Wish getting up in the final strides to win the 7f handicap at 12/1.

Goodwood

1:50 – Patient Dream – 5/1 @ Coral & Ladbrokes

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Good luck with your Thursday bets.

John

John Burke is the tipster behind the long standing Victor Value service you can join him here – https://victorvalue.uk