We finish of our week of Betting Insiders features with an article from Jakub Gawel who is one of the Betting Insiders football betting and trading correspondants and who shares systems and strategies in the Betting Insiders report every month.
This month I shared my research into the influence referees can have on the outcome of football games and detailed stats that demonstrate that some refs favour certain teams.
These biases may be unintentional and let's assume they are but nevertheless they exist and we can profit from them.
Today I'm going to share one particular bias that I have uncovered which featured in my Betting Insiders article this month.
Human factor – If you think about football refereeing as a job, it seems to be a very lonely one, often being abused verbally and even physically at times by players, managers and fans.
At the end of the day, a ref is a human being who has feelings, likes and dislikes. The ref should always remain fair and unbiased but is it safe to say, that even they will have their most/least favourite clubs/stadiums.
This quote was taken from one of the interviews with professional refs, which were supposed to promote this choice of career.
After reading this statement, I checked the League stats for Everton when they played under Marriner.
According to Andre Marriner, 38, who joined the elite list of Premier League refs in 2004, the rewards are manifest.
‘For me there’s nothing better than being a referee,’ he says. ‘I was at Everton the other day, one of my favourite grounds, and the atmosphere was amazing.
Running out of the tunnel, the sound of the crowd, the compactness of it all, it makes the hairs stand up on the back of the neck and there is nowhere else I feel more alive.’
On checking the stats I found that Everton lost only 4 out of their 21 matches under Marriner, 15 of those took place at Goodison Park (a bit many you would think) and Everton lost only 2 (against Newcastle and Blackburn).
But nothing interesting in terms of penalty and red card favour.
However, it’s noticeable that the Toffees were on average booked less often than their opposition.
But looking at my stats, Mr Marriner is the ‘luckiest’ match official for the team from the blue half of Liverpool.
Looking at Everton and other refs’ stats, there are some match officials who aren’t very ‘lucky’ for the Toffees, for example Martin Atkinson (19 Premier matches and only 4 wins for Everton) or Mike Jones (1 win in 10 matches).
Whether it’s just a fluke or a strong trend, it can’t be ignored when it comes to betting or trading.
This is just one trend that I uncovered, but there are a whole host of factors effected by the allocated referee.
Have you ever heard a manager or pundit state that bad penalty decisions even themselves over the course of a season?
My penalties league table strongly suggests otherwise. Some high profile teams have many more penalties awarded for them than against.
And for some of the less glamourous Premier League teams it unfortunately doesnt come close to evening out.
The influence of the referee on a game is a huge factor that you should consider in your betting and one that is under-utilised by the majority, which means value for us.
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Today's Selection courtesy of Betting Insiders
Font 1730 Aikideau (BetV 2/1, Gen 7/4)