Royal Ascot Reflections – Part 2 + Newbury Selections

Morning all,

A good day was had by all at Southwell on Monday. The torrential rain stayed away which was a bonus. Unlike last years gathering when I won the Betting School top tipster competition alongside Carl Nicholson. This time I ended up with the wooden spoon.

My present form is a dreadful. and I really couldn’t pick my nose. Yesterday selection ran well but could only finish third at Windsor last evening. Yesterday’s selection Louie De Palma ran well but could only finish third at Windsor.

Anyway, as promised, its another look back to Royal Ascot today. You will find all this plus some Newbury selections inside.

Royal Ascot Review – Part 2

In Monday’s post I looked at the headline makers and the star performers. Today I’m looking at some of the stats and the less familiar names who excelled last week. Here are some of the more interesting stats.

Trainers Stats:

The top three trainers at this year's Royal Ascot were.

Aidan O’Brien – 5 winners from 53 runners – 5.62 15 placed

Roger Varian – 3 winners from 11 runners +2.25 4 placed

Charlie Appleby – 3 winners from 22 runners -12 4 placed

Also, a mention for William Haggas who had 2 winners from 13 runners +3 6 placed.

Summary: Another solid performance from Aidan O’Brien, not as good as 2016 when he had 7 winners from 26 runners +42.15 16 placed or 2015 when he had 5 winners from 18 runners +17.03 10 placed 56%. However, still a very solid one.

Recent Royal Ascot's hadn’t proved a happy hunting ground for either Roger Varian or William Haggas.  Indeed from 2014 to 2018 the pair saddled just 1 winner from 113 runners -98 18 placed, when they could have been expected to have had 9 winners during the period.

Jockey Stats

The top three jockeys at this year’s meeting were:

Frankie Dettori – 7 winners from 27 rides 26% +25.5 12 placed

Ryan Moore – 5 winners from 29 rides 17% -0.12 15 placed

Danny Tudhope – 4 winners from 10 rides 40% +47 7 placed 70%

Summary: Frankie Dettori was champion jockey at this Royal Ascot. The track and the meeting just seems to bring out the very best in the biggest name in world horse racing.

Frankie grabbed most of the jockey plaudits and rightly so. However, we shouldn’t overlook the performance of Danny Tudhope.

Prior to this year the Yorkshire based jockey was 2 winners from 42 rides 8 placed. Which puts into perspective how well he was riding last week. Two of his four winners were provided by William Haggas. It’s a partnership that has really taken off in 2019, with trainer and jockey producing 15 winners from 23 runners 65 +31.85. They team up with one at Beverley today.

General Stats

1. The top two in the betting:

16 winners from 67 runners 24% +0.63 40 placed 60%

Non-handicaps produced 14 winners from 51 runners 27% +7.63 32 placed 63% in the process performing 13% better than market expectations over the five-days.

Summary: The market was a good guide to winner finding at this year’s Royal Ascot in particular in non-handicap races.

2. Handicaps – Top Weight or within 1lb of the top-weight:

3 winners from 14 runners 21% +8 6 placed 43%

Summary: Class was once again a good guide to the handicaps last week. Sometimes it can pay to keep it simple and go for the higher weighted runners at these big festivals.

3. Previous Ascot Winners:

9 winners from 58 runners 16% -11.5 23 placed 40%

Summary: Whilst you would have lost backing all previous course winners. They still performed 42% better than market expectations.

In tomorrow’s, third installment of my Royal Ascot debrief, I will give you some of my favourite equine performances of the five days, they don’t include any horses I mentioned on Monday. And on Thursday, I will share with you my five Royal Ascot eyecatchers.

Tuesday Racing:

As I mentioned at the beginning, I’m struggling for form at present. I have had a look at this evenings Newbury card and there are a couple that can go well.

Newbury

7:10 – Western Duke – The 5-year-old has yet to win since moving to the Ian Williams yard. But he wasn’t disgraced when 5th of 10 Kempton last month and is well handicapped on the very best of form for his previous trainer.  Decent each-way claims, if the reapplied cheekpieces bring out the desired improvement.

7:40 – Corrida De Toros – Given the form of the Ed De Giles stable it maybe worth chancing his runner in this 1m handicap. The 3-year-old makes his handicap debut here and should be suited by the extra furlong he races over today. He finished a couple of places ahead of the Andrew Balding trained Strict who should also be suited by today on his handicap debut.

8:15 – Keeper’s Choice is 1 win from 4 runs 2 placed at the track. He returned from a 203-day break to finish 3rd of 15 here over a mile, 39-days ago. He should have come on for that seasonal reappearance and Osin Murphy who has won the horse in the past returns in the saddle. The 5-year-old is 1lb higher than when winning at Sandown last September and looks capable of a good show.

Monday Tip:

Newbury

7:10 – Western Duke – each way

Until tomorrow

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