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Profitable Royal Ascot Trends

Hi all,

Inside today’s main piece you'll find my final set of Royal Ascot trends.

The final declarations for Day 1 of Royal Ascot are out and the excitement is starting to build up. I’m putting together my Day 1 preview for Victor Value subscribers. For those interested in my comprehensive write-ups and betting advice, you can still access them here for a one off £19.99 here.

Saturday promised a competitive day of racing with Premier fixtures at both York and Sandown. Unfortunately, Saturday morning brought another dull, wet, cold, and miserable start, reminiscent of November. It feels like we've been stuck in perpetual autumn since October.

Despite all the rain around on Saturday Ascot seemingly missed it as it was good to firm, good in places on Sunday at the track. There’s even been talk of watering – God forbid we should have a meeting start on good to firm ground.

Saturday Review

Saturday's racing, although competitive, wasn't of the highest quality, so I won't be giving it my usual Monday analysis.

Adaay In Devon is an admirable filly with an excellent battling attitude. She demonstrated this by holding off the late challenge of Flora Of Bermuda to win the Listed Scurry Stakes at Sandown. The rain that fell was in her favour for the drop back to the minimum trip.

I’m going into Royal Ascot with a spring in my step after Saturday. Even without those two winners, I’d still be pleased with how I’m reading the form.

On Course Profits free Horse Racing magazine

Just five horses went to post for the Listed Sky Bet Race To The Ebor Grand Cup Stakes at York. Despite the small field, the first four in the betting were separated by less than a point. With Chesspiece a morning non-runner, there was no front runner, promising a tactical, messy race—and so it turned out.

Ryan Moore sent Klondike to the front with Salt Bay chasing. He set a steady early pace, which proved crucial at the finish. Ryan got the tactics right; he stacked them up, increased the pace three furlongs out, and had enough left in the tank to hold off Salt Bay. Relentless Voyage wasn’t as well positioned as the two ahead of him and was outpaced when the tempo lifted, but he stayed on to finish third.

Klondike now has a guaranteed place in the Ebor Handicap. However, he won’t get an easy lead there as he did here and will likely face Salt Bay and Relentless Voyage again. Salt Bay needs soft ground, while Relentless Voyage will benefit from a well-run handicap.

James Did Delight

After four horses had been placed, I thought Saturday wasn’t going to be my day. Then Kieran Shoemark gave Silver Blaze a good ride to win at Sandown, and twenty minutes later, Ryan Moore won on James’s Delight in the Churchill Tyres Supporting Macmillan Sprint Handicap at York.

In Wednesday’s column, I wrote:

“One of them is James’s Delight in the 6f handicap (3:35) at York. He was disappointing at Newbury, but the ground was too quick for him that day. Forgiving one poor run can be wise, especially if he gets his favoured ground conditions. Ryan Moore has been booked to ride, and he and trainer Clive Cox combined to win this in 2022. The 12/1 odds available with Coral & Ladbrokes seem like good value, and he’ll likely be shorter on the day if the ground is in his favour.”

I backed him on Wednesday and advised Victor Value subscribers to do the same. Hopefully, readers of the column also took advantage of the 12/1 available.

I’m going into Royal Ascot with a spring in my step after Saturday. Even without those two winners, I’d still be pleased with how I’m reading the form at present.

Royal Ascot: A Racing Enthusiast's View

Let me be clear: I love Royal Ascot. Forget the royal fanfare; for me, it's the pinnacle of the flat racing season, offering thrilling contests and plenty of betting opportunities. However, this year, there seems to be a surprising lack of buzz and anticipation leading up to the event. Many bookmakers had been slow to price up races like the Hampton Court and Jersey Stakes, which is unusual given the event's significance.

Group 1 Races: Mixed Expectations

The St James's Palace Stakes and Coronation Stakes stand out as the Group 1 races brimming with excitement, showcasing top-notch 3-year-old talent. On the other hand, races like the Prince Of Wales Stakes for older race appears weak this year, raising concerns about the quality and competitiveness among the older generation. These races are likely to feature small fields, and while small fields can be acceptable with high-quality competition, a lack of depth diminishes the appeal. Thus, this year, much hinges on the performance of the Classic generation.

Heritage Handicaps: The True Thrill

Some punters view the Royal Ascot big field handicaps as bookie benefits. There’s some merit to that view. However, for me the Heritage Handicaps steal the show with their competitiveness and value for punters. These races are among the most fiercely contested of the season, with numerous betting opportunities. Punters must navigate potential draw biases, especially on the straight course, which can sway race outcomes significantly but if they can one big priced winner can often pay for your bets over the five days.


While some Group 1 races lack depth, the St James's Palace Stakes and Coronation Stakes remain must-watch events. The performance of the Classic generation will undoubtedly shape this season's narrative. Despite some reservations, Royal Ascot continues to be the premier event for flat racing enthusiasts and punters alike. The combination of top-tier races and thrilling handicaps promises an exciting and intriguing week ahead. Even the weather forecast looks more promising than it did a few days ago—though I might be a bit overly optimistic on that front. Bring it on!

Final Royal Ascot Trends

As promised on Friday here are my final set of Royal Ascot trends. Today I’m looking at some individual race trends.

King George V Stakes (Handicap) – 1m 4f

Nine of the last 10 winners of the King George V Handicap shared the following traits.

Stall: 8 & higher

Odds SP Last Race – 4/1 & under.

Combining those two angles gives us:

Only 2020 didn’t contain the winner, which probably shouldn’t be a surprise given the circumstances of that year’s meeting.

Duke Of Edinburgh (Handicap) – 1m 4f

Like the King George V Handicap run over the same distance it’s has paid to look away from the lower drawn horses.

Nine of the last 10 winners of this 3-year-old only handicap shared the following two traits.

Stall: 9 & higher

Last Race Odds Market: Between 1 & 3.

So being in the first three in the betting on their last start has been a positive. The only winner not to meet the above two trends was Hukum in 2020.

Royal Hunt Cup – 1m

Despite a 3yo+ handicap it's worth noting any colts in the line-up with the following traits:

Runs Last 90 Days: 0 to 3

Last Race Placing:  First Three.

That’s 50% of the winners in the last 10 years from just 7% of the total runners. Last year’s sole qualifier Chasing Aphrodite finished last of 30 but don’t let that put you off of what is an interesting angle.

Gold Cup

If you’re looking for an each way angle in this year’s Gold Cup you could probably do worse than focus on horses between 9/2 & 15/2 in the betting.

In the last five years not only have they provided two winners but if you had backed all the qualifiers each way you would have got a return of +£14.

That's me done with Royal Ascot trends for 2024.

All the Royal Ascot trends data is great for narrowing down fields, giving you a smaller number of horses to focus on and give you a powerful edge against the market. However, you still need to do your own work to analyse each individual horse for distance /going preferences, race pace setup etc. In other words, make the horse fit the angle rather than the opposite.

I’m not getting involved in Monday’s racing with so much good action to get stuck into this week. Good luck with your Monday bets if you are.

All the best.


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