Morning all,

On Wednesday’s I’m normally looking ahead to the weekend’s big races. This Weekend’s action is low key compared to recent Saturday’s so there’s no real point.

Inside today’s main piece and over the next two days I’m going to look ahead to Royal Ascot and some stats that may be worth keeping on side next week. Plus, there’s a selection from this evening's card at Cork.

After an excellent Cazoo Derby Festival, I’m really looking forward to this year’s Royal Ascot. If it provides as many exciting finishes as last weekend did, then were in for some real treats.

This time next week we’ll be on day 2 of Royal Ascot extravaganza. As punters were always looking for that vital edge that keeps us ahead of the market. At meetings like Royal Ascot trends and Stats can help us do that.

Royal Ascot can be a punters minefield, especially those big field handicaps, but the trends can give you give a starting point to help you find contenders and also remove horses from the list of horses you are analysing.

Ove the next couple of days I will be putting up a few trends and stats. I’m just going to scratch the surface but hopefully you will find them useful. Below are the first two.

Royal Ascot Stats & Trends: 2016 – 2021 – Part 1

Today’s stats look at jockey’s starting with who else but Frankie Dettori.

Frankie Factor

I doubt there’s a jockey alive who loves Royal Ascot more than Frankie Dettori. Throughout his long career he seems to come alive on the big stage. Since 2016 Frankie has had 24 winners at Royal Ascot which puts him six behind top jockey Ryan Moore.  He’s had 24 winners from 130 rides 18% +22.22 47 placed 36% with a level stakes profit of £53.13 to a £1 win stake at BSP.

Digging deeper into his record and you'll find he's had 1 winner from 34 rides 3% -30.25 in handicaps. It looks like non handicaps are they way to go with Frankie next week. (Watch him bag a 33/1 handicap winner now).

He’s had 2 winners from 29 rides 7% -12.5 4 placed in Group 3/ Listed races at the meeting. Focusing on his mounts in Group 1 & Group 2 race. He's had 21 winners from 64 rides 33% +67.97 34 placed 53%. And, he has a level stakes profit of £92.92 to a £1 win stake at BSP.

All in all, a simple angle back Frankie Dettori in Group 1 & Group 2 races at Royal Ascot.

Other jockey’s worth noting are Danny Tudhope, Jamie Spencer, Jim Crowley and Hayley Turner.

Danny Tudhope – 6 winners from 63 rides 10% +33 15 placed 24% with a level stakes profit of £82.39 to a £1 win stake at BSP. I like Tudhope as jockey and the market will likely continue to underestimate his rides next week.

Jamie Spencer & Jim Crowley are jockey’s whose style of riding is well suited to Ascot’s straight track.

Jamie Spencer’s record in handicaps on the straight track is 4 winners from 19 rides 21% +42 8 placed 42%. (There’s been a +60 profit for each way backers of his mounts). His industry SP profit increases to £72.93 to a £1 win stake at BSP.

Jim Crowley has had 10 winners from 107 rides 9% +9.54 31 placed 29% at Royal Ascot since 2016. Half of his winners have come in races between 5f & 7f. If you take out his 2-year-old rides – 0 wins from 13 rides, 2 placed. He’s produced the following results – 5 winners from 22 runners 23% +48.33 8 placed 36% with a £86.72 profit to a £1 win stake at BSP.  Ok, he was 0 wins from 4 rides with such qualifiers last year, but I think he can bounce back with a winner in 2022.

Finally, Hayley Turner she’s had 2 winners at the Royal Meeting both trained by Charlie Fellowes and they have come in the same race the Sandringham Handicap (1m).  Both winners were returned at 33/1. It will be worth noting if Charlie Fellowes has a runner in this year’s Sandringham and it’s ridden by Hayley.

Wednesday Racing:

There’s a good card at Cork this evening with the highlight being the Group 3 Munster Oaks (7.10). Also, on the seven-race card is the Listed Midsummer Sprint Stakes (6:40) and the valuable Cork Derby (7:40). The latter race is handicap and there’s €26,550 on offer to the winner.

Cork

6:40 – Midsummer Sprint Stakes (Listed) – 5f

Gustavus Weston won a Group 2 and Group 3 at the Currgah last season and is the one to beat on official ratings. However, both those successes came over 6f and he’s yet to find his best form on two runs so far this season.

7:10 – Munster Oaks Stakes (Group 3) (Fillies & Mares) – 1m 4f

Ger Lyons won this last year and was also successful in 2019. He saddles two of the ten declared runners: Thunder Kiss & Yaxeni. The first named is the mount of stable jockey Colin Keane and looks the stable pick. However, the latter can’t be totally dismissed as she did win a Listed race last time and has only 4lb to find with her stablemate on official ratings.

Aidan O’Brien has saddled the winner five times since 2014 and has two runners in Lily Pond & Kiss You Later. The latter is going the right way and got off the mark at the 5^th attempt when winning a Curragh maiden last month. Lily Pond the mount of Ryan Moore does look the pick. The daughter of Galileo won on her racecourse debut at Dundalk in April and then improved further when 4 length 2^nd of 6 in the Group 3 Blue Wind Stakes shaping like she would improve for the step up to 1m 4f.

Forbearance won three times in 2021, including a Group 3 at Newmarket on her final start. The 5-year-old was 5 lengths behind Thunder Kiss at York on her seasonal return last month. However, that run came over 1m 2 ½ f and her best form has come over today’s trip. If the ground is on the quick side of good (2-2 on good to firm) she’s a serious contender. The 12/1 available looks good if the rain stays away.

Rosscarbery made it 3-3 since switching to the Paddy Twomey yard when easily winning a Roscommon handicap under top-weight last time. A rapidly improving filly she looks worth her place in this company. Her last two wins have come on soft ground but if she’s as effective on a quicker surface won’t be far away.

Wednesday Selection:

Cork

7:40 – You can make a case for most of the ten runners in the Cork Derby. My pick is the Johnny Murtagh trainer Safecracker. The 4-year-old returned to action with a good 1 length 3^rd of 17 here (1m 2f) in April. He bounced back from a poor effort, on his first try at 1m 4f, when a 4-length 2^nd of 17 to stablemate Mashhoor at the Curragh last time.  Gets the addition of the first time tongue tie for another go at 1m 4f. Given he’s a half-brother to an Irish Derby winner Jack Hobbs he should stay 1m 4f on an easy track like Cork. The only real negative is the 5/2 that’s available. I was looking for 7/2 or maybe 4/1.

1pt win – Safecracker

Good luck with your Wednesday bets.

John