Good morning all,

Well that’s Royal Ascot out of the way for another year and like Dave said in his Friday column, I won’t be sad to see the back of it.

Was it a great Royal Ascot? Not for me. Granted there were some excellent individual performances from the likes of Lady Aurelia, Caravaggio, Winter and September but the rest of the meeting didn’t really make the pulse quicken for me.

Was there a track bias at work this meeting?

Well on the first day it paid to be drawn high in the races on the straight but on the Wednesday & Thursday this had all changed. I wouldn’t be shocked if Ascot had over-watered on the stands side to compensate for that early bias and under the law of unintended consequences succeeded in tipping the bias to the other side. A couple of years ago the same thing happened fast ground, high numbers favoured, then the track was watered and low numbers became favoured. Clearly the times from day 3 backed up that the watering after the first two days had slowed the track down.

Some of the pundits on ITV tried to underplay what was happening, saying that it had ‘cut up’ near side but fast ground doesn’t cut up like it does on soft. Then they were using the ‘pace angle’ which was completely debunked in the Norfolk Stakes, where all the pace was near side with the Wesley Ward runner speeding along in front but the winner came from stall 3, the runner up from stall 1 and the third from stall 7.

Now some will call it ‘sour grapes’ on my part, due to a pretty dire weeks punting at this years Royal meeting but once again the artificial watering of a track has had a big impact on results and left punters ‘high and dry’. Its short term pain for the punter but artificial watering of racecourses will have longer term consequences for the sport. As trainer Hughie Morrison said in 2013 “The thoroughbred was designed to run on fast ground in the summer and if we persist with this over-watering policy and pander to this so called red herring of safe ground, we’re going to have a lot of unsound horses in the future.…..we are weakening the breed.” I cant disagree with those thoughts.

One For The Tracker:

The one thing that never changes about Royal Ascot is the number of horses that go into the notebook for future races and this year was no different in that regard. The Duke of Edinburgh Handicap over 1m 4f, on the Friday turned into a bit of a dash for the line and those horses out the back were never going to win. It’s this race that provides my horse for your trackers this week.

Star Storm trained by James Fanshawe was one of the runners held up in the early part of the race. He was making steady progress between the third and second last furlongs but didn’t get a clear passage two furlongs out and that didn’t help his cause. The five year old was staying on well once in the clear but was never going to catch the winner. Still in the circumstances to get as close as 3 ¼ lengths to the first was a good performance. He has now run some of his best races at Ascot, won a Group 3 over C&D in 2015 and was respectable 3rd on his seasonal reappearance in a listed race.  All his career wins have come on good or good to firm – 3 wins from 10 runs 7 placed. If the handicapper doesn’t go overboard with the weight rise after this run he can remain competitive off this sort of mark.

Stat Corner:

This week’s it’s not a trainer in focus but a horse, the Declan Carroll trained Mysterial. The seven year old is now 8lb below his last winning mark. The seven year old has an entry for Beverley on Tuesday a track he has won at in the past. He has 9 career wins from 54 runs but are two keys to this horse: Good to firm going and racing within 15 days of his last run for which he has 5 wins from 10 runs 50% +30,25 6 places 60%. One to very much note if he gets a quick surface on Tuesday.

Monday Selection:

Last weeks selection could only finish 3rd so here’s hoping we can go two better this week. Tom George is a trainer always worth having on your side at Southwell. In the past 5 years he is 20 winners from 58 runners 34% +12.75 at the course. He saddles two today: Cuirassier Dempire (6:40) and Fit the Brief (8:10). Both look to have chances in their respective race but of the pair the former interests me most as he fits a nice little micro angle for the trainer at Southwell:

Horse Age: 5 year olds only
Going: Good or Good to Soft
Headgear: None
Odds SP: 12/1 & under

12 winners from 23 runners 52% +24.8 A/E 1.76 17 placed 74%

6:40 – Cuirassier Dempire – 9/2

All that’s left, is to wish you a profitable weeks punting.

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