Good morning all,
Hopefully there will be a big crowd to enjoy Saturday’s King George VI and Queen Elizabeth Stakes on Saturday. For what looks a vintage renewal of the race.
Yesterday, it was announced that Mishriff would come to Ascot rather than go to York for an alternative engagement. He will join the likes of ante post favourite Love and Derby winner Adayar and Irish Derby runner-up Lone Eagle, in what is shaping to be the race of the season so far. Wonderful Tonight could also take her place in the line-up although I doubt she will be risked if the ground is too quick.
Sadly, there will be one strong contender missing from the line-up and its Pyledriver. The 4-year-old has had minor setback which means he’s forced to miss Saturday’s race. If the issue proves to be a minor one. He could go to York for the International Stakes or be kept for the big autumn middle-distance races.
Inside today's main piece you can read my thoughts on a couple of Saturday's big races at Ascot. Plus, I there is a selection from this evening's meeting at Sandown.
The Weekend Starts Here
King George VI And Queen Elizabeth Diamond Stakes (Group 1) – 1m 4f
Its good to see two top-class 3-year-old’s as likely runners for this year’s renewal. The classic generation have been under represented in the last 11 running’s of the race. Just 18 have run in the race since 2010 and three of them have won. The last 3-year-old to win was Enable in 2017.
Looking at the race trends. If you focus on those sent off 11/2 & under, they have produced 3 winners from 9 runners +4.25 7 placed 78% (+8.60). That means both Adayar and Lone Eagle have big chances.
Love heads the ante post betting with Paddy Power at 5/4. Last seasons 1,000 Guineas/ Oaks heroine is a deserved market leader. Good or quicker ground really suits the 4-year-old and the return to 1m 4f will suit after her win in the 1m 2f Group 1 Prince Of Wales's Stakes at Royal Ascot on her seasonal return.
Mishriff was too keen in the Eclipse at Sandown last time. That was the 4-year-old’s first run since winning the Group 1 Sheema Classic at Meydan. That will hopefully have taken the freshness away and better ground, than at Sandown, should suit.
Wonderful Tonight probably needs the ground to ease to run but if it does, she will be a threat to all and I could see her winning this given her liking for the track – 2 wins from 2 runs.
Adayar claims are clear for all to see. A good winner of an above average Epsom Derby. Quick ground would be a bit of an unknown but apart from that he’s got a big chance.
Lone Eagle almost stole the Irish Derby from the front but was collared by Adayar’s stablemate Hurricane Lane in the final strides. That form is strong and he’s not out of it.
Moet & Chandon International Stakes (Heritage Handicap) (Class 2) – 7f
The International Stakes is one of the big betting races of the weekend.
Motakhayyel won the Bunbury Cup under top-weight last time. A C&D winner at last season’s Royal meeting. The 5-year-old put in a Group 1 level performance on the figures to win the Bunbury Cup and will be hard to beat under his 3lb penalty.
Matthew Flinders looked suited by the drop back to 7f last time and is on a competitive mark. Danyah has run well on three starts this season in big field handicaps, including when 2nd of 22 in a C&D handicap last time. Dance Fever won at Leicester last time and is back on track. Recent eyecatcher Escobar doesn’t hold any secrets from the handicapper but he can never be ruled out in a strongly run race here. However, he does need all the cards to fall right.
Shine So Bright has five lengths to find with Motakhayyel on their running in the Bunbury Cup. Being held-up was a change in tactics for the normally front running 5-year-old. A Group 2 winner as a 3-year-old he gets 4lb from the winner and is on a workable handicap mark.
8:10 – Barn Owl a winner of Ripon novice when last seen in action 49-days ago. Looks the sort to do better in handicaps and is on workable mark for his handicap debut. Trainer Roger Charlton has his horses in form now and hopefully the selection can add to the trainer’s winner’s tally.
Barn Owl – 4/1 @ Coral & Ladbrokes
Good luck with your Wednesday bets.
John Burke is the tipster behind the long standing Victor Value service you can join him here – https://victorvalue.uk