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Saturday Preview

Hi all,

Inside today’s main piece I look ahead to the Group 1 Phoenix Park Stakes at the Curragh. Plus, you can read my thoughts on the latest running of the Shergar Cup.

It’s free entry at the Curragh on Saturday afternoon. It’s a good card with a Group 1 race so it will be interesting to see if free entry to a race meeting has a big impact on the attendance.

This afternoon’s Phoenix Stakes (4:40) isn’t the only Group 1 this weekend. On Sunday it’s the Prix Jacques le Marois at Deauville and it’s shaping up into a cracker for the most prestigious 1m race run in France during the flat season. There’s a mighty purse of £505,664 on offer to the winner of the race.

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The Shergar Cup takes centre stage in Britain today. All six races from the Shergar Cup are being covered live on ITV4 as well as two from Haydock and one from Newmarket. There’s also the bonus of the broadcaster taking the big Irish Group 1 race live.  So, if the Shergar Cup isn’t your cup of tea you have several other ITV4 races to get stuck into.

4:40 – Keeneland Phoenix Stakes (Group 1)

Likely favourite River Tiber wasn’t declared by Aidan O’Brien who now relies on Unquestionable & His Majesty. The O’Brien colts face five rivals which means there are two more runners than in last year's race.

Unquestionable is vying for favouritism with Bucanero Fuerte who beat the O’Brien colt by short head in the Anglesey Stakes over C&D last month. Aidan must believe that his colt can reverse placings with Bucanero Fuerte but on easy ground I wouldn’t be too sure.  Both colts are open to further improvement and there shouldn’t be much between the pair once more.

It’s not a two horse race though. We haven’t seen Givemethebeatboys since he finished a 1 ¾ length 4th of 20 to River Tiber in the Coventry Stakes at Royal Ascot. He was ¾ length and 1 place behind Bucanero Fuerte that day and this race has been the target since.

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It’s good to see Donnacha O'Brien run his star filly Porta Fortuna. The daughter of Caravaggio made it a perfect 3 from 3 when winning the Albany Stakes at Royal Ascot. She’s a speedy sort and Osin Murphy comes over for the ride. She doesn’t have much to find with the market leaders on Official Ratings and just like them is open to more improvement.

Shergar Cup

Here’s my quick guide to the Shergar Cup action. For most, me included, it won’t be a card to get to heavily involved in. However, I will be having an interest in most of the races.

1:35 – Dubai Duty Free Shergar Cup Dash (Class 2) – 5f

I was interested in Tees Spirit in the opener. The 5-year-old returns to handicap company is nicely treated on the best of last years’ form. Well beaten in a Group 2 at Chantilly when last seen in action in June so needs to bounce back and is at is best on good or quicker ground. The drying ground could see him return to winning ways, but will it be dry enough. Existent was not match for Lord Riddiford when runner-up at Goodwood 11 days ago. Very much in the mix once more and could win if the pace is strong enough.

2:10 – Dubai Duty Free Shergar Cup Stayers (Class 2) – 2m

The Very Man, trained by Jessica Harrington, has returned to the flat with two good efforts. Finishing 4th of 18 at the Curragh in May and a ½-length 2nd of 20 to Teed Up at Galway 12 days ago.  Now 4lb higher than last time but should be and bang there once more.

2:45 – Dubai Duty Free Shergar Cup Challenge (Class 2) – 1m 4f

William Haggas won this corresponding race last year withPride Of Prioryand the 5-year-old is back again. But the trainer sets punters a bit of a poser as he also saddles likely favourite La Yakel.

Pride Of Priory wasn’t at his best on three starts this season but there was more to like about his 3rd of 7 at Ripon three weeks ago. He can race off the same mark as 12 months ago and this has likely been the plan.

La Yakel seems likely to go off favourite. A winner over C&D on handicap debut last September. The 4-year-old posted a career best on RPR’s when a neck 2nd of 7 over C&D last month. That was a pleasing belated seasonal reappearance and provided the ground hasn’t dried out too much he should go close.

May Mayhem hails from the red hot Kevin Philippart De Foy yard – 7 winners from 18 runners in the past 14 days. The 5-year-old was back to form when 3 ¼ length 6th of 18 in the Duke Of Edinburgh over C&D two starts back and progressed again when a ¾ length 2nd of 7 over C&D 15 days ago.  Nudged up 3lb for his latest effort but likely to be better positioned than most in what might not be the strongest run race.

3:20 – Dubai Duty Free Shergar Cup Mile (Class 2) – 1m

Plenty in with a chance in what looks the toughest race of the card for me. The bookies don’t think it’s tricky as they have Perotto installed as a very short priced favourite.

Perotto took advantage of some leniency from the handicapper to return to winning ways at Sandown two starts back. And he wasn’t disgraced when a 4 ¼ length 7th of 20 in the Golden Mile Handicap at Goodwood 8 days ago.

The handicapper seems to have got Empirestateofmind for now, but he can normally be relied on to give his running in races like this. Not beaten far when 5th of 9 to Ghaly here two weeks ago and with Dettori booked can’t be ruled out.

Escobar wasn’t seen to best effect when a 7 ¼ length 13th of 20 in the Golden Mile Handicap at Goodwood last time. The 9-year-old hasn’t been at his best so far this season but has dropped to 5lb below his last winning mark which came here (7f) last October. Likely to pop up sometime.

Positive Impact was in good form around this time last year. However, he needs to bounce back from a couple of underwhelming performances in Meydan earlier in the year.

Fox Tal, trained by Andrew Balding, has the ability to win this but isn’t the reliable and is a tricky ride. He returns from a 211 day lay off but has gone well fresh and can’t be ruled out even though he’s one of the outsiders.

3:55 – Dubai Duty Free Shergar Cup Classic – 1m 4f

Satin, trained by Jessica Harrington, gained a second career success when winning a Killarney handicap (1m 3f) last month. The step up to 1m 4f could elicit more improvement from the filly and she’s high on my shortlist.

Golden Move improved for the step up to 1m 4f when winning on handicap debut at Doncaster (soft) three weeks ago. Up 5lb but going the right way and is open to further improvement.

Rajasthan got off the mark at the third attempt when winning a Salisbury maiden (1m 2f) 45 days ago. He’s another open to improvement if staying today’s longer trip.  The colt is bred to better than an 87 rated horse and looks on a workable mark on handicap debut.

Like A Tiger had looked progressive when winning a Newmarket handicap on his seasonal return and bounced back from a poor run when 1 ¼ length 5th of 11 at Yarmouth 16 days ago. He’s lightly raced he’s not of this, but drying ground would be a concern.

Scintillante probably won’t get in (second reserve) but would have a decent chance if he did. The 3-year-old won a Chester handicap two starts back. He didn’t get the clearest of runs 2f out when a 5 ¾ length 4th of 10 over C&D 15 days ago. He’s going the right way and one for the shortlist.

4:30 – Dubai Duty Free Shergar Cup Sprint – 6f

Quinault did me favour when landing a handicap six timer at Newmarket last month. It will take a brave punter to oppose him but today could be the day to do it.

Harry & Roger Charlton saddle a couple of live contenders in Batal Dubai & Zaman Jemil. The former was twice a winner as 2-year-old and bounced back from a low key seasonal return to win a Newcastle handicap in decisive fashion last time. He’s unexposed and capable of further progress. Zaman Jemil relished the quick ground when winning at Thirsk last month. Up 6lb but today’s stiffer 6f should suit him even better and he’ll be happy if the ground continues to dry out.

Dark Trooper has looked much improved for winning his last two starts at Yarmouth (good to soft) and Haydock (heavy) six days ago. A 3lb penalty shouldn’t prevent him from going close and given his present vein of form is difficult to ignore.

Who Will Win The Team Prize?

I’m not sure may punters care as we focus on the individual races. But if you do have an interest in the winning team market.

Great Britain & Ireland won last year’s team prize, but I think this year it will be between the Women’s team and Europe.  It’s the Women’s team who tend to take the competition most seriously and that normally makes them a solid bet.

Saturday Selection:

I was torn between putting up The Very Man or Dark Trooper. However, Tom Segal has put them both up in his Pricewise column. Indeed, the price on The Very Man has now halved. Once one of the big name Racing Post tipsters put up a horse on Saturday, we have no chance of getting decent odds.  The bookies are just slashing prices with I suspect very little money on. I managed to get 11/2 about The Very Man but 100/30 is ridiculous. That all said The Very Man my idea of the most likely winner at the Shergar Cup.

Ascot

2:10 – The Very Man.

Good luck with your Saturday bets.

John

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