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Saturday Preview

Hi all,

It’s one of those weekend’s in the flat season where there’s lull between the big meetings. In this case between York’ Ebor Festival last week and Irish Champions Weekend and next Saturday’s Haydock’s Betfair Sprint Cup.

ITV4 are covering racing from three meetings this afternoon.  Four races from Sandown, the feature meeting and two each from Beverley & Chester.

Here are few pointers for Sandown.

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Sandown

It was good to firm, good in places at Sandown on Friday morning but by Friday evening it was good, good to soft in places. Not much rain is forecast so it shouldn’t be worse than good.

1:50 – Virgin Bet Best Odds Daily Handicap (Class 3) – 7f

Lyndon B is a dual course winner (both at a mile) on quick ground. Not at his best on three starts so far this season but his been running better than his final positions suggests. He’s down to a winnable mark and if the 7-year-old gets a well-run race, he can win this.

Tough Enough was steadily progressive on three starts last year and made a winning seasonal return on handicap debut at Windsor in June.  Returned to winning ways over C&D 23 days ago. Up 4lb but the 3-year-old likely remains on a winnable mark.

Indemnify’s three best RPR’s have come at Sandown (all at 1m) and he was unlucky in the run when 3 ½ length 4th of 11 here 13 days ago. He would have gone close last time with a clear passage and has a good chance off the same mark.

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2:25 – Virgin Bet Atalanta Stakes (Group 3) (Fillies & Mares) (Class 1) – 1m

Coppice was a good winner of the Sandringham Handicap at Royal Ascot’ However she looked out of her depth when 5th of 8 in the Group 1 Falmouth Stakes at Newmarket last time. Drops in Class here but I think quicker ground would suit her. Stablemate Queen For You looked a useful prospect when finishing runner-up in a Listed race at York in May. Found Group 1 company to hot on just her third career start in the Coronation Stakes at Royal Ascot and possibly didn’t stay 1m 2 ½ f at York last time. A return to a stiff mile and the addition of the first time cheekpieces could see her back to her best.

Potapova came from the rear in a strongly run race to win this race 12 months ago. Not at her best on three starts this season but didn’t come into last year’s race in form either. Needs to revive but capable of doing so.

Heredia was back to her very best when comfortably winning a Haydock Listed race 21 days ago. Back in a 3 ½ length second that day was Purplepay. That was a much better effort from the latter, but I think she would probably prefer even softer ground.  Heredia needs a strong pace like she got at Haydock and if she gets it won’t be far away.

Roman Mist won a Listed race at Goodwood in May and was back to her best when a neck 2nd of 9 in a Group 3 at Ascot last month and must be considered.

Nibras Angel is the unknown quantity. She’s won her two career starts and has a Group 1 Sun Chariot Stakes entry. Has 13lb to find with Heredia on Official Rating’s but is capable of further improvement.

3:00 – Virgin Bet Handicap (Class 2) – 1m 2f

Dual Identity was a strong finishing runner-up in last year’s race and then finished third in the Cambridgeshire. He’s struggled to replicate last year’s progressive form this season but has dropped back to a good mark when he does bounce back to his best.

Gaassee looked back to his best when 1 ¼ length 4th of 13 in the Old Newton Cup (1m 2f) at Haydock two starts back but was disappointing at Ascot last time though. His best form has come at 1m 4f so I’m not sure whether the drop back to 1m 2f is a positive. Slightly easier ground will suit the 5-year-old and he’s on a competitive mark.

Top weight Certain Lad is another who will appreciate the slightly easier ground. However, he hasn’t won since landing a Group 3 at York in three years ago. He’s on a competitive mark though and can’t be ruled out.

3:38 – Virgin Bet Solario Stakes (Group 3) – 7f

Mortlake stepped on his racecourse debut run when winning a Leicester novice 20 days ago. He looked an excellent juvenile prospect that day and is worth his place in the line-up. Open to further improvement and trainer Ralph Beckett is 14 winners from 44 runners in the past 14 days.

Starlore made a winning racecourse debut over C&D in July. He’s capable of further progress and looks well worth his place in Group company.

Aabian made a winning debut at Newmarket last month. The son of Dubawi is another useful prospect and trainer Charlie Appleby saddled the winner of this race in 2017 and also last year

Saturday Verdict:

It's the quietest Saturday of the flat season for me betting wise.

Charlie Appleby has had a tough summer by his high standards. Not sure if his yard has had a virus or not. However, he seems to be in some form now and I'm taking his Aabian to win Sandown's Solario Stakes.

If the ground had been soft I would have liked Purplepay more in the Group 3 Atalanta Stakes. I don't think it will be though. Last year's winner Potapova has to be respected. However, in a tricky race my dart has landed on the unexposed Nibras Angel.

I previewed the Beverley Bullet (2:40) in Thursday's column and I think Judicial can roll back the years and land the Beverley feature. His yard had a sprinter bounce back to form at Thirsk yesterday and hopefully the 11-year-old will do the same.

Selection:

Beverley

2:40 – Judicial – 5/1.

Good luck with your Saturday bets.

John

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