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Saturday Preview

Good morning all,

Cracking day of racing today, head-spininng stuff in what is now termed Super Saturday. I've looked at the best of the TV action in the hope of finding a winner.

2.20 York – John Smiths Silver Cup

The two highest-rated horses in the race are probably the two with the strongest form claims, so I’m not going to be telling you much that the market isn’t. 

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It looks a tough task for Fujaira Prince to win this on seasonal debut, but you’d have said the same thing last year when his first start was in the Copper Horse Handicap at Royal Ascot, and it didn’t stop him winning that (and backed off the boards to do so). He followed that up with his Ebor win before acquitting himself well at Group level, and with the likelihood of juice in the ground, looks the one to beat. 

Hukum has yet to actually win at the trip, but he’s won just short of it when taking the Geoffrey Freer last year, and I don’t see it being a stumbling block to his chances. He put in a career best at Ascot on his latest start when third in the Hardwicke, form that’s already had a boost with second home Broome winning the Grand Prix de Saint-Cloud, and it’ll be a surprise if one of the pair isn’t good enough to take this. 

4.05 York – John Smiths Cup Handicap

I’ve always been a fan of Fishable and although he ran poorly in the Melrose here last year, finishing last, that wasn’t his form, as he showed when second to Marronnier here the time after (soft ground). Given he blew the start completely, he ran a much better race than his finishing position suggested here in May, and followed that with a game victory from the front at Ripon last time. There’s more to come from him yet, and I’d suggest he might well have been campaigned with this in mind. 

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It’s wide open though, as you’d expect, and there are plenty with chances. Lucander is one I like, as you can put a line straight through his Hunt Cup effort (mile on quick ground not his thing) and there was nothing wrong with his seasonal debut when trying to give a stone to Jean Baptiste. He was a ready winner over C&D when taking the Skybet Handicap (soft) last year and with the excellent Laura Pearson taking five off, it effectively puts him on the same mark here. 

3.35 Ascot – 5f Handicap

I’ll throw this race into the Saturday mix as well (it’s on the ITV roster) as I’m keen on the chance of Tis Marvellous now that Clive Cox is back among the winners after a quiet spell (five winners from last ten runners at time of writing).

Ascot’s 5f arguably brings out the best in him, and he won this race back in 2019 after finishing runner-up in the Wokingham on his previous start. He needed his reappearance run at Doncaster in March but stepped up on that when fourth to Came From The Dark at Newbury next time, giving him 2lb. That form looks all the better now too. 

Capable of mixing it at Group 1 level here at his peak (fourth to Battaash in the 2020 Kings Stand) a mark of 101 looks very tempting today, and from what looks a good draw in stall 17, he ought to go very close. The more it dries, the better his chance. 

3.50 Newmarket – Bunbury Cup

Motakhayyel is back to defend his crown and he comes here in good form after his length second in the Criterion. He’s only 4lb higher than last year, which was quite a classy affair, so you’d be hard pushed to say he’s badly handicapped, and the booking of one F. Dettori is going to ensure he’ll go off well backed. He might be nicely drawn in stall 3, as the pace looks likely to come from low (Shine So Bright in stall 6 looks the certain pacesetter, not without interest himself) and he looks sure to be in the mix. 

The improving Ametist has drawn stall 1, and you have to admire his willing attitude in winning twice here in his last two starts. He has a penalty to carry, which actually makes him 3lb badly in, but in a race lacking in improvers, he’d have to be on your list. 

I’m betting two in the race, both of whom came from the same Newmarket handicap last time out. Kimifive, who was sixth in this last year after suffering interference, looks to have been brought nicely to the boil for this after his close fifth last time out, only weakening out of it late on. He’s a pound lower than last year and there’s a good handicap in him. It might be here, or it might be Goodwood (I’m assuming) next time, but he’s worth a couple of quid. 

Back in seventh in that Newmarket handicap was On A Session, who travelled like the best horse in the race but found little when push came to shove at the business end. I’m not surprised to see the addition of a hood today, which if it helps him settle a bit better (and he got warm pre-race too) might see him take a step forward again. He too looks well enough handicapped on the best of his Irish form and with the excellent Ray Dawson taking three off, will be my saver. 

4.25 Newmarket – July Cup

Lots of pace on, and most of it middle-to-high. Wouldn’t be a big price they split into two groups here. 

With that, I’ll take one from both sides. Oxted is a boring selection in many respects, but he’ll have this set up nicely for him from the high numbers, with the likes of Emaraaty Ana, Glen Shiel and Art Power all taking him into the race, but he is, of course, proven under these conditions, being the reigning champ, and came right back to form when winning the Kings Stand last time out. There’s a lot in his favour, and he might be hard to beat. 

It takes a bit of a stretch to see Good Effort winning this, but if he keeps drifting to a daft price I might get interested. He looks sure to take the low numbers along, and has been producing some very good efforts, albeit at a lower level and on the all-weather, this season. His latest second to Chil Chil at Newcastle was nearly a career best, and although it would be easy to pigeonhole him as an all-weather performer, he does have some wins to his name of turf, including one over C&D back in 2019. Yes, he needs another huge step up but he’s likely to have it his own way among the low numbers and if there is any track bias over that way, he could come into the equation. A lot of ifs and buts but give me 50-1 and I’d chance it. 

Today's selection – Tis Marvellous (e/w) 3.35 Ascot

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Good luck with all your bets today,

David.

1 thought on “Saturday Preview”

  1. Excellent analysis of the day’s races. Using your article got a ‘nice! return on a 5 Placed LUCKY31- Thanks Dave

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