Good morning all,

Drew a blank yesterday and in truth not a lot I like today, despite it being a really good day's racing. My thoughts on the main piece. Good luck, and have a great weekend.

1.50 – Palace House Stakes

If Major Jumbo was better drawn than he is – I’m less than convinced stall 1 is where you want to be on the evidence I have seen so far this week – he might have been the pick, but after watching Bungee Jump – a real jump-and-go merchant – win on Thursday, there does seem to be a huge angle in getting out to the front and getting gone.

We are on a different course to Thursday’s, but the point is still valid, and with that, Ornate from stall 8 must have half a chance of taking this lot off their feet. He’s a real speedster on his day, and although he probably just falls short at this level, the conditions balance that out a bit, and he’s worth a bet with four places on offer.

If he goes too quick, Moss Gill and, at a much bigger price, The Cruising Lord could be the ones to benefit. Moss Gill improved throughout last year and won a big field York handicap with any amount in hand. That was on soft, but quicker isn’t a issue, and from stall 10 he’ll be perfectly placed to track the likely pace.

The Cruising Lord is going to pop up in a race of this nature at some point this year, and despite some 50-1 quotes floating around this morning, he’s not without some hope of reaching the four at least here. He needs them to go a million from the start but that is possible, so watch for him coming late up the stands rail.

3.35 – 2000 Guineas

If Pinatubo has trained on, then he’ll probably win this easily, as he has the best form in the book, conditions are fine and I have no doubt he’ll get a mile. Even when a little below his best on his final start in the Dewhurst he was able to take care of Arizona to the tune of 2l, so despite the assertions that Arizona will make a better 3yo, I’m finding it a stretch to see him reversing the form.

Having said that, the Dewhurst form is Arizona’s best effort, and if you’re of the opinion Mum’s Tipple won’t stay (and I am) then he’s probably second best here. Would I want to back him each-way though? If I think Pinatubo has trained on then no, as I’m only playing for a place, so it would make more sense to me to try a small win bet in the hope he hasn’t. I’m not saying I will, just that’s how I’d play him if I did.

In fact, I’m not sure how I really want to play this, if at all, at the moment. I was quite taken with Military March’s two wins from two starts last year, and he showed a good attitude when getting back up to deny the less-than-willing Al Suhail in the Autumn Stakes, but at twice the price, surely Royal Dornoch’s battling win over Kameko in the Royal Lodge has been somewhat overlooked? That was a big step up on anything he had achieved previously and given that came on good ground (time was almost bang on standard) I don’t think conditions will be against him. Stall 2 might be more of a worry, but at 33s and 4 places, he might be the bet.

4.55 Lingfield

I like the shape of this race, as there are plenty of hold-up horses that are going to be screaming for room off the bend, and it gives something the opportunity to slip clear, if they are good enough. Step forward Soldier’s Son, who showed plenty of speed in seven starts as a 3yo (unraced at 2) and the key might be the switch to this surface, which his dam acted on very well (form figs of 14200 here). This will also be the first time he’s got a non-claiming jockey on his back, having had a 7lb claimer on (yet to ride a winner in 24 starts) for his last four. Ping and go, that’s hopefully the plan….

My bets today –

1.50 Newmarket – Ornate (e/w 5 places Hills)

1.50 Newmarket – The Cruising Lord (e/w 5 places Hills)

A few small forecasts with Ornate, The Cruising Lord, Moss Gill and Major Jumbo as well.

4.55 Lingfield – Soldiers Son (e/w 4 places Paddy Power)

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Good luck with all your bets today,

David.