Good morning all,
I could have done a Derby and Oaks preview today but in truth I actually fancy the favourites, English King and Love, so it might have been a bit dull. So here are four I fancy tomorrow, although the price is already going on one of them. Have a great weekend, and with so much good racing to pack in, who needs the pub anyway?
Muntadab (Roger Fell)
For much of late last season Muntadab looked like a horse that was out of love with the game. In six starts he beat the grand total of four horses home, and he just looked gone. But he’s come roaring back this June, with two much better efforts, firstly when beaten a length by stablemate Presidential at Doncaster and then a battling second earlier in the week at Musselburgh. He looked well beaten as Gabrial The Wire went past him at the furlong pole but really put his head down and fought back to force a photo. He really does look back to his old self and if that’s the case, is well handicapped here.
The three-day turnaround is no problem – his record when turned around within 7 days reads 12131721, and that includes a 24-hour turnaround when winning at Leicester in 2018 after finishing second at Musselburgh the day before. The only worry, for me, is whether he will handle the track, but that aside, he looks sure to put up a bold show on the front here.
Data Protection (William Muir)
I’d worry there are one or two better handicapped sorts in the field but Data Protection looks a big price at 20-1+, as there are more than enough plus points for the price.
Not least of which is his good record at the track – 312 – and although they have all been achieved in small fields, I don’t necessarily hold that against him. He ought to get a good tow into the race from stall 6 – Wargrave in stall 1 looks sure to lead the low numbers, but Data Protection himself usually races prominently (has led) and although he rarely races at 10f, he does get the trip, and on the figures his best effort came at it last year.
There are more likely winners for sure, but at the price, I’d chance him.
Shortbackandsides (Lisa Williamson)
Ey Up It’s Mick (Tony Coyle)
The assumption is that, in moving from Tim Easterby to Lisa Williamson, that Shortbackandsides is going to go backwards but that’s unfair on Lisa, who may not be dealing with horses at the top level but does well enough with the very limited ammunition she has. And it isn’t as if Shortbackandsides ran any worse on his first start for Lisa at Wolverhampton than he had done for much of last year for Tim, so there may still be something there. If there is, then today’s soft conditions are ideal – record on soft/heavy reads 20021 and on his only start at Haydock he was beaten a head.
Again, more likely winners but 33s worth a small bet.
I was going to leave this race at that but having watched today’s racing I think I might want something drawn low as well, and Ey Up It’s Mick, in stall 4, fits the bill. He’s only won 1 of his 13 starts but handles soft/heavy really well (record of 123) and ran well over a trip too far on his reappearance at Hamilton earlier in the week, he doesn’t really want an extended mile and this drop back to 6f looks a smart move. The quicker they go early the better his chance late on. (Update here – the 11s with Hills already a distant memory at 6pm Friday, now a 6-1 chance generally.)
Good luck with all your bets today,