Good morning all,
Rather annoying to get chinned in the closing stages at Fontwell yesterday, was convinced Mogestic had the race in safe keeping, but sadly that run-in once again took its toll and he was sadly caught in the final strides. Got the e/w money but sadly not the3 jackpot.
If heavy ground punting is your thing then you’re in clover on Saturday, as it’s going to be very testing just about everywhere. My best bets are on today’s preview.
4.10 Goodwood – 1m6f Handicap
I think if Orin Swift had run better on his reappearance he might have been the pick, but he was hard at work a long way out and for a horse that often goes well/wins fresh, it was a laboured effort. He’ll love the ground here, and he stays 2m too so won’t fail for a lack of stamina, but that Kempton run has put me off a little. If he drifts to a daft price – 16s and bigger – I might invest, but we haven’t seen the best of Mr Chua yet and from the right end of the handicap he makes more appeal.
Staying really looks his game after a hard-fought win at Chester last time and I don’t think soft/heavy will bother him at all. He clearly had issues early in his career – gelded, wind surgery and didn’t even see the track for Michael Stoute but he’s getting the message for Michael Scudamore now and there should be more to come.
2.10 Windsor – 1m Handicap
Form on soft/heavy is virtually non-existent in this field but connections clearly think Always Fearless needs some cut – he was taken out because of the quick ground at Goodwood at the start of the month – and he was far from disgraced on heavy ground on his debut at Leicester as a 2yo last year. It was a perfectly satisfactory comeback run at Doncaster in June and I suspect an autumn campaign was probably always on the agenda. I think he’ll go very close here.
4.25 Windsor – 1m2f Handicap
The question to ask here is – which of these will stay this trip in heavy ground? I’d suggest a few of them might struggle, and that probably includes favourite Maykir, who has yet to conclusively prove that 10f is what he wants (both wins have come at 1m), Mr Dependable, Fivehundredmiles and, in this ground at least, Compass Point. That could leave it open for something at a price to plod on and at 20-1 Island Flame makes some each-way appeal. She does at least have a soft ground win to her name, albeit some time ago, and she did keep going for a steady fourth over 10f at Bath last time. 3lb out of the handicap here won’t help but this is about what handles conditions, not what’s well handicapped. Small e/w bet at the price for me.
2.25 Goodwood – 7f Handicap
Outside of these races I’m struggling to find a lot, but Battered is worth a mention here. He’s run well from a couple of moderate draws this term and in truth, probably hasn’t fared well again but on this ground it’ll be less of an issue. Now 4lb lower than when a C&D winner last year (in soft ground) and although this is competitive, he’s well enough handicapped to consider.
Today's selection – Island Flame (e/w) 4.25 Windsor
Good luck with all your bets today,