Sceptre Stakes Profile

We have a bonus mail for you today with a race profile from Nick Hardman of the Betting School Insiders Club.

Nick is renowned for his race profiling methods and the hundreds of points profit he makes each year using them.

If you want to join Betting School Insiders and get all of Nick's selections you can do that here https://bettinginsiders.com

The race we are looking at is the Sceptre Stakes (Doncaster 1:50)

I have pasted the full write up on the website but here is the profile.  

  • Rated 100+ Top six in the betting
  • Top 5 finish last time out
  • Trained by Roger Varian, Luca Cumani, Sir Michael Stoute or Mick Channon
  • Aged 3yo
  • Watch out for those that last ran in a handicap
  • Previous course form (win or place) should be noted

The easiest way to find the selection that best fits this profile is to use the exes on the Geegeez race cards.
And under each horses name you will a little red X
For each horse that you exclude click the X and that horse will drop to the bottom of the card.
So first up go through and click the X for every horse rated less than 100 and carry on like that until you have your list of contenders that fit the profile.
In this case it turns out that only one of the trainers listed has a runner and that runner is a good match for the other factors.

Here's the full profile courtesy of Betting School Insiders Club

Sceptre Stakes (Listed) 7f

The Sceptre Stakes is a Listed race for fillies and mares and has thrown up a few surprises in recent years. Roger Varian has won the last two renewals with Spangled at 14/1 last year and Realtra in 2015 at a tasty 25/1. Those were not the only big priced winners in recent times as other have gone in at 22/1 and 25/1, 14/1, 12/1 and 11/1 since we entered the new Millennium. The last 5 winners have all returned odds of 8/1 or bigger.

That said, since 1997 favourites have a record of 4-20 as do the second favourite and the top two in the market account for 8 of the last 20 winners so my advice would be to weigh up the chances and value in the prices of the front two before looking further down the card for an each-way bet. Also bear in mind we get a wide range in field size. Twenty runners went to post in 2015 and just 7 last year which would have ruled out an each-way bet.

Aside from Roger Varian, Luca Cumani has trained the winner twice in recent times (2009 and 2013) and the now retired Barry Hills won this 4 times between 2002 and 2008. Sir Michael Stoute and Mick Channon have also won this race twice, although neither has managed to saddle the winner in the last 11 years. The race is open to any filly or mare aged 3+ but it is dominated by the 3yo runners who have won 10 of the last 11, and 13 of the last 14 renewals. The 4yo runners have the worst record (2-49) but Spangled bucked that trend last year. Do not dismiss the 5yo and older horses who, although few and far between, have won 3 times from just 27 runners.

8 of the last 9 winners were all rated 100 or higher so I will be sticking to those higher rated horses this time around. There are no clear pointers regarding the days since last run nor is there any emergent patterns regarding the number of runs in the season. However, horses that had won or placed at Doncaster previously and those stepping out of handicap company have a much better strike rate than those who have not managed to finish in the frame at Doncaster and those that ran in a non-handicap last time. That might give us an edge in terms of value as the market often misses things like this. Last time out winners have a great record (8-18) and horses arriving on the back of a top 5 finish have won no fewer than 16 of the last 20 renewals. Putting that all together gives us the following profile:

 

  •  Rated 100+
  •  Top six in the betting
  •  Top 5 finish last time out
  • Trained by Roger Varian, Luca Cumani, Sir Michael Stoute or Mick Channon
  • Aged 3yo
  • Watch out for those that last ran in a handicap
  • Previous course form (win or place) should be noted

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