Good morning all,
As regular readers are fully aware, I do like this time in the week. The bookies have up the big weekend races and there’s a chance of spotting one that the bookies have priced up wrongly. So far eleven of Saturday’s races have been priced by the bookmakers.
Looking at the going at Saturday’s big meetings. Chepstow is being described as heavy for the rescheduled Coral Welsh Grand National. Kempton is at the time of writing being described, as soft as is Wincanton. Barring heavy frost, it’s hard to see racing not taking place.
ITV are covering a bumper ten races on what looks a “Super Saturday” for the channel.
It’s looking good on the weather/going front. But is there anything that stands out as ante post bet at this stage?
Saturday big race thoughts
Inside today’s main piece you can read my thoughts on couple of Saturday’s races. Plus, I have a selection from Kempton.
Welsh Grand National
Favourite Secret Reprieve ticks plenty of the key boxes like going and track. He’s well in at the weights – 8lb compared to future races – only has a 4lb penalty to carry for his success in the Grand National Trial here last month. He will be a popular pick for many punters and the favourite will be very hard to beat. Trainer Evan Williams is also likely to saddle Prime Venture who was 4th in the race 12 months ago and has each way claims again. He finally got his head in front at the 13th attempt over fences when beating two rivals at Sedgefield on his seasonal reappearance in November.
When I first looked at this race there weeks ago, I put up Bobo Mac (25/1) and The Hollow Ginge (33/1) for Victor Value subscribers. The former has proved weak in the ante post betting in the past 24-hours but should still go well if he runs. Of the pair The Hollow Ginge looks a better bet. He shaped with plenty of promise for this when a staying on 4th of 18 in the Ladbroke Trophy at Newbury last time. Goes well on soft ground and looks a strong stayer.
Oliver Sherwood saddled the winner of the Sussex National at Plumpton on Sunday and bids for a national double. His runner is unexposed stayer Dominateur. The 8-year-old won two of his five starts over fences last season and looked an ideal type for the race when winning a heavy ground 3m novices handicap chase here at the meeting last season. Will be all the better for his seasonal reappearance at Kempton 62-days ago. If his jumping holds up the generally available 12/1 looks fair value.
Kempton – Lanzarote Day
Apart from the Welsh Grand National, there’s a cracking card at Kempton for what is usually Lanzarote Day. Apart from the Lanzarote Handicap Hurdle (3:30) which looks a cracker and would be the best handicap hurdle of the season, if all the fancied horses declared at the five-day stage, stand their ground. We also have the rescheduled Grade 2 Relkeel Hurdle (2:20), from Cheltenham’s cancelled New Year’s Day meeting and the Grade 2 Silviniaco Conti Chase (2:55).
Silviniaco Conti Chase
This year’s renewal has attracted a good field at the 5-day stage. The bookies have made Imperial Aura favourite. Next in the betting is recent Cheltenham Grade 2 winner Mister Fisher and his trainer has won this three times since 2014. Given their recent wins in the grade their claims are obvious.
Riders Onthe Storm was a well beaten third to Put The Kettle On, on his seasonal return but that was over 2m and 2m 4f is more his trip. A Grade 1 winner at Ascot last season. If he was to bounce back to last season’s best, he would be in the mix for sure.
The one I like at the prices is Master Tommytucker. The 10-year-old carried top-weight in the Caspian Caviar and seemed to be renewing his effort when making a bad mistake two out. That seemed to knock the stuffing out of him and he eventually finished a well beaten 7th. He get’s 6lb from the three mentioned earlier. Despite falling twice here last season I think this is his type of track. If he can cut out the silly mistake, he usually makes during a race, he won’t be far away and 5/1 looks a fair price.
Master Tommytucker – 5/1 @ Bet365 & Paddy Power
There’s a couple of Class 2 races on today’s Kempton card.
6:15 – Rock Eagle showed 2m is his distance when winning over C&D 49-days ago. Up 2lb but could vulnerable if the race turns tactical.
True Destiny was 4th in that race, he gets 2lb from the winner here and gets the first time cheekpieces. Like the favourite he will appreciate a good gallop to chase.
Lucky Deal was a taking winner over 2m at Newcastle 16-days ago. He should run well but this is a better race.
Amtiyaz won at Wolverhampton and Newcastle in the autumn. He looked a bit unlucky in the run on his first attempt at 2m here last month. He’s going the right way and is open to further progress at the trip.
6:45 – Streamline hasn’t been seen on the track since winning the Group 3 Sirena Stakes over C&D 487-days ago. He missed his 3-year-old season but if he’s retained his juvenile form he would be very interesting here.
6:15 – Amtiyaz
Good luck with your Wednesday bets.