Something For The Weekend & Thurles Selection

Morning all,

The money came in as expected for Thaler yesterday evening and he was returned the 10/11 favourite. Thus, yesterday’s selection Diocles Of Rome. was sent off at very generous 12/1.  The price drift had no impact on his performance, as he came from the rear to win going away with favourite in second.

Inside today’s main piece I look at tomorrow’s big handicap at Newmarket the bet365 Old Rowley Cup Handicap (4:10).  Plus, I have a selection from Thurles.

Something for the Weekend – Part 2

Future Champions Weekend gets underway at Newmarket on Friday. Not only do we have all the good juvenile 2-year-old group races to enjoy. Plenty of classic clues are likely to be on show in today’s bet365 Fillies' Mile (3.35). And of course, Saturday’s Group 1 Dewhurst Stakes (2.55).

I’m not going into any stats for Future Champions Weekend on this occasion. However, you need a horse that handles and has a racing style that suits the track. It’s worth noting that horses that go well on the Rowley Course often come back and over-perform again.

Bet365 Old Rowley Cup – Newmarket (Friday)

The Old Rowley Cup is a 1m 4f handicap for 3-year-old’s that was first run in 2014. It doesn’t have a long history but to win it you must have horse that is progressive and is bordering Listed class. The race has attracted an average field size of 17. This year see’s 15 declared so it’s slightly below the race average.  

Still, it’s worth keeping an eye on the draw. Five of the seven winners of the race were drawn in stalls 10 to 17 – 5 winners from 45 runners +29.5.  Compare that with those drawn in stalls 1 to 9 – 2 winners from 62 runners -38. No need then be afraid of a high drawn horse in this year’s race.

Contenders:

Of those drawn high Moshaawer (12) looks the most interesting. The colt has just had the five starts and last time finished ½ length 2nd of 22 in the Melrose Handicap (1m 6f) at York. He’s 5lb higher now but is progressive and will be competitive.

Boltaway (6) won over C&D 15-days ago. He has a 6lb penalty to carry for that success but remains unexposed over 1m 4f.

Charlie Appleby won this race in 2017 with First Nation. He relies on Siskany (4) who won his first two starts this season and then finished an excellent 1 ¼ length 4th of 17 in the King George V Handicap at Royal Ascot. He improved again when a ½ length 2nd of 13 in a Class 2 handicap at the Qatar Goodwood Festival. Raised 5lb for his Goodwood effort he’s been gelded since that run and could be open to more improvement.

The ante post favourite is the improving Injazati (5) who bids for a four timer after making all to land the hat trick at Newbury last month. He’s been 8lb for that success but could well be still ahead of the handicapper. All three of his wins have come over 1m 2f but looks like he will stay 1m 4f. Four of the seven winners of the race were stepping up from 1m2f on their last start. Granted he’s not likely to get an uncontested lead here like he did last time. However, he’s got the progressive profile for the race that I like.

Verdict: The forecast strong pace should benefit the likely patiently ridden Moshaawer. It will be interesting to see what impact the gelding operation has had on Siskany. Rather boringly my preference is for Injazati who looks fair value at around the 5/1 mark.

Thursday racing

It’s going to be tough to follow up Diocles Of Rome. I’m off to Thurles for today’s selection. It could be a good day for trainer Patrick Flynn & jockey Mikey Sheehy who combine for a couple of fancied runners.

Thurles

1:45 – The Aidan O’Brien trained Anchorage is 0-4 but he’s finished runner-up twice and must be respected on his nursery debut.

Play By The Rules seems to be getting better with racing and was a 1 ¼ length 2nd of 7 behind the useful Howth on his nursery debut 49-days ago. The form of that race has worked out nicely with the third & fourth both going onto win nurseries.

Another progressing with racing is All In The Mind. The colt did best of those ridden prominently when 3rd of 15 at Listowel last time. He looks on a workable mark for his nursery debut with Mikey Sheehy taking off a handy 5lb. The first-time blinkers are applied and he looks the sort to do well in handicaps.

3:30 – Walnut Beach put in a career best on the flat when a ¾ length 2nd of 12 at Tramore (soft) on his last start on the level in August. The 4-year-old has since gone on to make a promising hurdle debut when a 1 length 4th of 17 at Roscommon 10-days ago. Looks more than capable of big run.

Thursday selection:

Thurles

1:45 – All In The Mind – 7/1 – Gen

Good luck with your Thursday bets.

John

John Burke is the tipster behind the long standing Victor Value service you can join him here – https://victorvalue.uk

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