by Dave French

March 4, 2015

In my last article I wrote about how I was creating speed ratings.
http://dailypunt.com/create-speed-ratings/

At the moment the ones I have created are based purely on each race and an estimate on the time it took to run the race.

Apart from the winning horse (which we have the time for) we use the distance behind the winner to estimate the times of the other runners.

Of course the idea behind any ratings is so that you can use them to judge one runner against another in a race.

In order to do that with any form of accuracy you need to have figures that are from similar conditions.

There isn’t much point having speed figures from a 5f AW race when the horse is now in a 1m race on heavy going.

At the very least we should be looking at the same type of surface or type of race.

And this is where the real challenge comes in when creating speed ratings.

Every race is different.

It is very unlikely that every runner in a race would have raced under the exact same conditions.

Although when we talk about AW and Flat racing we probably have a much better chance of coming close.

All Weather racing is a favourite of mine.

I do really well following Jockey’s and Trainer’s on AW so it seems to me a good place to start with speed ratings.

Although Chelmsford has been added to the AW calendar we still only have 5 courses to concentrate on.

There are differences between the surfaces and courses and you need to take these into account when creating ratings.

As we have the winning times of every winner over the last 29 months I can create a standard time for each course at each distance.

These figures can then be used to work out differences between each course giving us a chance to create an “allowance” based on which course the speed ratings were from.

This should help to balance out the ratings and make them more accurate.

Hopefully by the next article I will be able to show you an example of these ratings and to demonstrate how you can use them.

Thanks


Malcolm
The Grey Horse Bot

Today's Selection

16:10 Catterick Cousin Guillaume – win bet – 2/1 Stan James

Disclaimer: All views and opinions expressed in this article are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the official policy or position of TGH Trading Ltd or it's employees.

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Dave French

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